Two reports for the Minstry for Primary Industries.
The Ministry for Primary Industries commissioned NZIER to do some modelling on three possible futures for the food and fibre workforce in 2032, depending on how government and industry act. They're not mutually exclusive and aim to shed light on how the workforce may change over time.
We used our economy-wide TERM-NZ computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with assumptions based on our 3 possible future scenarios:
We developed the assumption parameters using discussions with food and fibre sector industry representatives. We used workforce data from the year ending 31 March 2020 to forecast through to 2032.
Download the scenarios report here.
Although the models provide numbers, there are seen primarily as a qualitative high-level forecasts of sector trends. They are not trying to predict numbers of workers needed in specific roles, but to highlight the sector impacts of different scenarios.
For more information and discussion of the modelling, assumptions and results, download the workforce futures report here.