Latest publications / Trade

Supercharging CER?

CER turned 40 last year and should be celebrated. It has set the standard as the world's best practice for a free trade agreement – it has been an outrageous success. Read more

The good, the bad, and the ugly: A decisive election for trade, or is the writing already on the wall? NZIER Insight 116

The United States elections are upon us, and uncertainty prevails. The only thing certain, it seems, is the continuation of tariffs and more tariffs. None of this is good for the United States economy or the world economy since they act as a drag on all economies. Still, United States … Read more

Celebrate resilience: supply chains have passed the test - NZIER Insight 104

Under extreme pressure, our supply chains have been winners. But what do we need to do to ensure future resilience? Read more

Digital trade is the way forward for New Zealand

The introduction of digital trade initiatives as developed by providers such as TradeWindow will have major benefits for New Zealand supply chains. “The NZIER show that the benefits are between $9 and $18 billion over 10 years for those involved in New Zealand export supply chains if … Read more

Southern Link: The potential to develop a global value chain

The Southern link is a trade route that links Asia and South America via New Zealand – it turns what is seemingly a distance challenge for New Zealand into a competitive opportunity. Read more

The trade implications of Mr Biden for New Zealand - NZIER Insight 97

Or what does the Chinese Century mean for New Zealand? The United States has structured world trade over the past 70 years in a way that has been positive for New Zealand. Now that the United States has relinquished its lead trading position, how will Mr Biden behave on trade policy? … Read more

New Zealand's place in the world - NZIER working paper 2021-01

New Zealand's place in the world - including flows in trade, people, capital, and ideas - continues to change. This working paper highlights how some of the long-standing memes, which have dominated the local discourse no longer apply in a post-COVID world. In particular New Zealand's … Read more

Is dairy our biggest achievement or yesterday's news? NZIER Insight 91

The dairy industry has proved resilient through the COVID crisis. But what of the future? This paper looks at the dairy industry prospects over the next ten years. We find that the most important challenges are domestic supply side issues (conforming to climate change and water qualit … Read more

What might US Withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO) mean for New Zealand?

Modelling by NZIER suggests that New Zealand medium term exposure to US withdrawal from World Trade Organisation (WTO) is surprisingly limited. We modelled five different scenarios of global and New Zealand responses to the US imposing tariff rates last seen in the great depression. W … Read more

Land-based industries see New Zealand through tough COVID times - NZIER Insight 90

Covid-19 has changed the trade game that New Zealand plays. With the structure of the New Zealand economy based on our exports the stakes are high. Now that New Zealand has shifted through the lockdown levels and arrived at Alert Level 1, it is a good time to ask why our land-based ex … Read more

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