The tale of Goldilocks and the three fears (about the minimum wage) - Insight 96
October 6, 2021
The minimum wage is a ‘Goldilocks’ policy: not too high, not too low. A political consensus on the role and appropriate level of the minimum wage is both possible and desirable. Read more
Lockdown divides Shadow Board’s views on tightening
October 4, 2021
The Shadow Board has become divided over its views on what should happen with monetary policy at the October Monetary Policy Review. This is due to the ongoing lockdown in Auckland to contain the COVID-19 community outbreak and heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook. Read more
NZIER Consensus Forecasts show mixed outlook as uncertainty over the impact of latest COVID-19 community outbreak looms
September 13, 2021
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the near-term outlook for the New Zealand economy but an upward revision for the subsequent year. The latest community outbreak of COVID-19 is likely to have driven these revisions, as the recent lockdown reduces economi … Read more
NZIER’s Shadow Board calls for tightening at the upcoming meeting
August 16, 2021
The Shadow Board overwhelmingly calls for a tightening in monetary policy at the August Monetary Policy Statement, with many noting an OCR increase would be appropriate. That said, there remained a wide range of views amongst the Shadow Board. Recent developments point to a rise in in … Read more
Manaakitanga in the age of COVID
August 5, 2021
Thousands of short-term migrants are trapped in New Zealand due to COVID-19. A series of ad hoc extensions to their visas have allowed them to stay. The Government should apply principles of manaakitanga – hospitality, kindness, generosity, support – and issue these people with a one- … Read more
NZIER’s Shadow Board calls for tightening within the coming year
July 12, 2021
There are growing calls amongst Shadow Board members for the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy given the pick-up in inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy. Many on the Shadow Board now see a tightening in monetary policy at the upcoming July meeting as appropriate. Beyon … Read more
NZIER Consensus Forecasts show weaker starting point for growth is not expected to persist
June 14, 2021
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts (CF) show that beyond the weaker starting point for GDP growth, the near-term growth outlook has been revised up. On average, annual average growth in GDP is expected to reach 5 percent in March 2022. Read more
NZIER’s Shadow Board sees stronger case for tightening
May 24, 2021
While Shadow Board members still considered current monetary settings as appropriate for the upcoming May meeting, attention turns to a tightening in monetary policy over the coming year. In the near term, members pointed to some uncertainty over how sustainable the recovery will be p … Read more
NZIER’s Shadow Board calls for a ‘wait and see’ approach
April 12, 2021
There remains a wide range of views amongst the Shadow Board members on what the Reserve Bank should do with monetary policy. The focus on the housing market has become more intense in recent months, and the recent announcements of policy measures to address house price sustainability … Read more
NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the growth outlook over the longer term
March 15, 2021
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to growth forecasts later this year. However, this partly reflects a higher starting point, as the recovery in demand after lockdown restrictions were relaxed turned out to be stronger than expected. Read more