QSBO as a forecasting tool - NZIER working paper 2011/5

This paper investigates using Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) data to forecast GDP and inflation a year ahead of official data releases using a VAR model and principal component analysis. The key finding is that applying such an approach to QSBO data provides robust predictors of GDP and inflation up to a year ahead.

Each year NZIER devotes some of its resources to undertake and make freely available economic research and thinking aimed at promoting a better understanding of New Zealand’s important economic challenges. The preparation of this paper was funded from those resources.