Commit to quit : control the devil in your future -NZIER Insight 35
May 18, 2012
Breaking an addiction is difficult: only about 3% of smokers who go cold turkey manage to successfully quit. New research by behavioural economists shows that getting people to make a financial bet on their success could lift those rates by over half again. Economists at NZIER think i … Read more
Canterbury after the earthquakes : April 2012 update - NZIER Insight 34
April 18, 2012
The Canterbury earthquakes have disrupted lives and the economy. This Insight brings together key economic indicators to provide a second snapshot of the economic disruption. We find encouraging signs of stabilisation. Read more
Seven years lost - NZIER Insight 33
March 14, 2012
Proust's À la recherche du temps perdu (In search of lost time) inspired the Proust index in The Economist newspaper of 25 February 2012. The Economist looked across a number of economic measures to see how far back countries have slipped since the global economic crisis. We replicate … Read more
Grow for it : how population policies can promote economic growth
January 27, 2012
New Zealand struggles to grow its economy partially due to its small size and remote location. There is little that can be done to change location, but the size can be increased over time. It is feasible to adopt a population policy with the aim of the population reaching 15 million i … Read more
Economics like there's no tomorrow - NZIER Insight 32
December 2, 2011
Do you get the sense that New Zealand doesn’t invest in the major public infrastructure facilities like we used to? Previous generations built entire networks for rail, road, water and energy. Only Muldoon’s Think Big projects and the current ‘Roads of National Significance’ might com … Read more
Be a whizz at writing a RIS - NZIER Insight 31
November 18, 2011
Decision makers need information. Whether they are ministers, mayors or corporate execs, all will need to weigh up the costs and benefits of their actions. Advisers and analysts have the role of collating and presenting the necessary information in a snappy and digestible form. In a c … Read more
Canterbury after the earthquakes - NZIER Insight 30
November 8, 2011
The Canterbury earthquakes have disrupted lives and the economy. This Insight brings together key economic indicators to provide a snapshot of the economic disruption. The true cost of the disaster will not be known for some time. The immediate clean-up and reconstruction is boosting … Read more
QSBO as a forecasting tool - NZIER working paper 2011/5
October 19, 2011
This paper investigates using Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) data to forecast GDP and inflation a year ahead of official data releases using a VAR model and principal component analysis. The key finding is that applying such an approach to QSBO data provides robust predic … Read more
QSBO performance indices : How useful are they?
October 12, 2011
This paper assesses the predictive power of performance indices, constructed from Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (Q SBO) data, to forecast economic activity. Read more
Industry productivity and the Australia-New Zealand income gap
September 19, 2011
Differences in productivity explain much of the growing income gap between Australia and New Zealand. Good policy responses rely on understanding the sources of these differences. Read more