NZIER Consensus Forecasts suggest a sluggish economy for the coming year

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a further downward revision to the growth outlook for the years ending March 2025 through to March 2027. Forecasts of annual average GDP growth point to zero percent growth in the year to March 2025 before picking up to 2.2 percent in 2026. These revisions reflect expectations for sluggish economic growth over the coming year. Recent data, such as NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion measures of business confidence and firms’ own trading activity also suggest a deteriorating growth outlook for the coming year. Beyond 2025, lower interest rates are expected to support a recovery in economic activity.