NZIER Consensus Forecasts suggest a contraction in the New Zealand economy in the year ending March 2025

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the near-term growth outlook relative to the previous release of Consensus Forecasts, with annual average growth of -0.8 percent in the year to March 2025, before picking up to 2.1 percent in the following year. The revised GDP growth forecast for 2025 reflects Stats NZ’s recent revision of historic GDP data, which pointed to a contraction in the New Zealand economy during the June and September quarters of 2024. Beyond 2025, lower interest rates are expected to drive a recovery in economic growth.