NZIER Consensus Forecasts still point to a slowing economy over the next two years - December 2023

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show expectations for a general slowing in the New Zealand economy over the next two years, with forecasts for annual average growth in GDP of 1.2 percent in the years ending March 2024 and March 2025. Worth noting is the upward revision in forecast GDP growth for 2024 from 0.4 percent in the previous forecast, which largely reflects the better-than-expected GDP increase of 0.9 percent over the June quarter. Nonetheless, the revised forecasts still point to a period of fairly subdued growth ahead before picking up to 2.4 percent in 2026. Higher interest rates are expected to continue to dampen demand, driving a slowing in economic activity over the coming years. Over the longer term, the strong migration-led population growth will underpin activity across a range of sectors.