How could generative AI transform our economy? Part 1: Economic theories and emerging evidence - NZIER Insight 119

With the rapid spread of ChatGPT over the past two years, generative artificial intelligence (AI) is taking the world by storm.

This paper is the first in a two-part series that explores the potential economic impacts of this powerful new technology. This paper discusses the economic theories and emerging evidence, and the next considers potential future developments and policy responses.

Together, economic theories and emerging evidence indicate that generative AI could have major impacts on a scale similar to steam power, electricity, and computing. However, the impacts are highly uncertain and likely to unfold gradually over several years or decades.