What might US Withdrawal from the World Trade Organization mean for New Zealand? NZIER Public Discussion Paper 2020/2

11 August 2020

By Derek Gill and Milad Maralani

Modelling by NZIER suggests that New Zealand medium term exposure to US withdrawal from World Trade Organisation (WTO) is surprisingly limited. We modelled five different scenarios of global and New Zealand responses to the US imposing tariff rates last seen in the great depression. While impact is negative for both the US and China in all scenarios, the change in New Zealand GDP is less than 1%.