A dynamic Computable General Equilibrium modelling assessment.
NZIER report to Hort NZ.
A consortium of horticultural sector organisations, supported by the Ministry for Primary Industries, asked NZIER to estimate the economywide economic impacts of a Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) incursion in New Zealand. Using our dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model, we estimate that GDP would fall by between $1.8 billion and $3.6 billion by 2038, and horticulture exports by $2 billion to $4.2 billion. These estimates are being used by the horticulture industry to inform discussions about treatment options, including introducing a potential biocontrol agent, to mitigate the negative economic, social, cultural and environmental effects of BMSB.
The report can be read here.