In this section you can search or browse for material published by NZIER.

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  • Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand’s ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy - NZIER Working Paper 2013/1

    01 March 2013

    In 30 years’ time New Zealanders will be choosing to retire at least three years later than we do now. Living longer means working longer.

    We will want to save more for our retirement as our life expectancy increases. Working longer will also be more attractive as an ageing population will drive up wages.

    In NZIER’s latest research paper, we quantify the impact of an ageing population on future wages and interest rates, and people's savings and retirement decisions.

  • Slow recovery at home, rising risks abroad

    17 December 2012

    The New Zealand economy is recovering gradually, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Economic growth will average 2.5% over the next three years. The Canterbury rebuild will be a key driver, though it will be more protracted than previously thought.

  • Rates on hold but recommendation finely balanced - NZIER Shadow Board

    03 December 2012

    Rates on hold but recommendation finely balanced.

  • The host with the most? Rethinking the costs and benefits of hosting major events - NZIER Insight 40

    30 October 2012

    Hosting large events like the Rugby World Cup are expensive undertakings. That makes value-for-money evaluation critical. But most impact event analysis doesn’t stack up, missing displacement effects. It means benefits are often far smaller than people think.

  • Shadow Board split over interest rate cut

    24 October 2012

    Shadow Board split over interest rate cut

  • Economy-wide impacts of industry policy

    26 September 2012

    NZIER conducted the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling for this latest Treasury Working Paper, 'The economy-wide impacts of industry policy'. This work was part-funded from our Public Good research fund and used two different CGE models - the Orani-G model of the NZ economy and the GTAP model of the global economy.

  • Use macro-prudential tools to improve inflation targeting - NZIER Insight 39

    06 September 2012

    Before Graeme Wheeler starts his new job as Governor of the Reserve Bank, he must sign a new Policy Targets Agreement (PTA) that sets the goalposts for monetary policy. This is an opportunity to introduce macro-prudential tools to help ease the exchange rate impact of inflation targeting.

  • Regional economic integration: more than one way to skin a cat - NZIER Insight 38

    02 August 2012

    By Gary Hawke

    Recent angst about trade agreements challenging domestic regulatory power distracts from an undeniable truth: the international implications of domestic regulatory settings have never been more important for New Zealand businesses. Rather than fighting it, New Zealand policymakers and firms need to better understand how changes to domestic regulation that are taking place in an environment of closer regional cooperation can enhance productivity, growth and incomes.

  • Shadow Board favours no change as weak outlook persists - NZIER Shadow Board, July 2012

    23 July 2012

    Shadow Board favours no change as weak outlook persists - NZIER Shadow Board, July 2012

  • Demographic change a force that firms ignore at their peril - NZIER Insight 37

    18 July 2012

    New Zealand's population is ageing – confronting firms to respond to the opportunities an ageing population brings. The most successful firms will need to have a clear understanding of the impacts of demographic change on not just consumer demand, but also the supply side of business. This means putting in place strategies to address the impact of ageing on the make-up of the workforce, succession planning and where new ideas will come from.

  • Apple industry gained millions through science and marketing - NZIER Insight 36

    26 June 2012

    Consumers, supermarkets and distributors in Germany and the United Kingdom have been demanding reduced chemical use on fruit. The innovative growing programme ‘Apple Futures’ brought scientists and growers together to figure out how to reduce sprays and residues while producing export-quality fruit. Analysis from NZIER found that the research programme preserved between $25m and $35m per year of industry net income from 2008 to 2011, at a research cost of $3.2m. In just four years, the apple industry earned up to an extra $113m by reducing chemical residues to one-tenth of the maximum set by the European Union.

  • A slower recovery - Consensus Forecasts, June 2012

    18 June 2012

    The recovery is expected to be lower and last longer, according to the latest issue of NZIER’s Consensus Forecasts. The economy will still grow; from 1.2% in the year ending March 2012 to 3.1% by 2014.

  • More weight on lower OCR as economic risks grow - NZIER Shadow Board

    12 June 2012

    More weight on lower OCR as economic risks grow - NZIER Shadow Board

  • Commit to quit - NZIER Insight 35

    18 May 2012

    Breaking an addiction is difficult: only about 3% of smokers who go cold turkey manage to successfully quit. New research by behavioural economists shows that getting people to make a financial bet on their success could lift those rates by over half again. Economists at NZIER think it's an option that should be considered as the government aims to achieve a smoke-free nation by 2025. 

  • Canterbury after the earthquakes, April 2012 update - NZIER Insight 34

    18 April 2012

    The Canterbury earthquakes have disrupted lives and the economy. This Insight brings together key economic indicators to provide a second snapshot of the economic disruption.  We find encouraging signs of stabilisation.

  • A shallower recovery - Consensus Forecasts, March 2012

    19 March 2012

    The recovery will be shallower than previously thought, according to the NZIER Consensus Forecasts. The economy will still grow; accelerating from 1.8% in the year ending March 2012 to 3.2% by 2014.

  • Seven years lost - NZIER Insight 33

    14 March 2012

    Proust’s À la recherche du temps perdu (In search of lost time) inspired the Proust index in The Economist newspaper of 25 February 2012. The Economist looked across a number of economic measures to see how far back countries have slipped since the global economic crisis. We replicated the Proust index for New Zealand. The recession has cost us dear. In economic terms, New Zealand is now back in 2005.

  • Grow for it - How population policies can can promote economic growth, NZIER working paper 2012/1

    27 January 2012

    By John Yeabsley

    New Zealand struggles to grow its economy partially due to its small size and remote location. There is little that can be done to change location, but the size can be increased over time. It is feasible to adopt a population policy with the aim of the population reaching 15 million in the next 50 years – an annual growth rate of 2.5% per annum. This would bring the size and density of the population to levels closer to more prosperous European countries. Fifteen million – two and a half times current projections – is a good target, too, as it allows for several large cities, fostering competition within New Zealand.

  • Lower growth for longer - Consensus Forecasts, December 2011

    12 December 2011

    The recovery will slower than previously thought, according to the NZIER Consensus Forecasts. But the economy will still grow: 2.2% in the year ending March 2012 and then accelerate to 3.0% in 2013 and 2014. The Canterbury reconstruction will be a key driver, with the rest of the economy growing more modestly, averaging 2.2% over the next three years.

  • Economics like there’s no tomorrow - NZIER Insight 32

    02 December 2011

    Do you get the sense that New Zealand doesn’t invest in the major public infrastructure facilities like we used to? Previous generations built entire networks for rail, road, water and energy. Only Muldoon’s Think Big projects and the current ‘Roads of National Significance’ might compare. 

    Major infrastructure investment decisions come down to how much we care about our future, and the future of our children and grandchildren. The government’s social discount rate policy captures in a single number how much decision makers care about the future relative to today. The default public sector stance is to use an 8% real (i.e. net of inflation) discount rate. But is 8% right?