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NZ is no Greece or Italy, but needs to face up to long term issues - NZIER Insight 41, March 2013
22 March 2013
Like much of the world, New Zealand’s economy is still feeling the lingering consequences of the global financial crisis and the hang-over of its own asset price bubble. The economy is recovering slowly. In the last few years, households have spent cautiously and paid down mortgages. This was an adjustment that needed to happen. But net foreign liabilities are still very high and recent credit growth raises concerns that the adjustment has not been enough. Major action will be needed to contain the ageing-related growth in government spending that is about to hit us, and lift economic growth. Steps have been made in the right direction, but further reforms are needed. New Zealanders need to be prepared to make sacrifices in the short run to make progress in the long run. The longer we delay action, the bleaker our prospects.
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Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand’s ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy - NZIER Working Paper 2013/1
01 March 2013
In 30 years’ time New Zealanders will be choosing to retire at least three years later than we do now. Living longer means working longer.
We will want to save more for our retirement as our life expectancy increases. Working longer will also be more attractive as an ageing population will drive up wages.
In NZIER’s latest research paper, we quantify the impact of an ageing population on future wages and interest rates, and people's savings and retirement decisions.
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Slow recovery at home, rising risks abroad
17 December 2012
The New Zealand economy is recovering gradually, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Economic growth will average 2.5% over the next three years. The Canterbury rebuild will be a key driver, though it will be more protracted than previously thought.
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Rates on hold but recommendation finely balanced - NZIER Shadow Board
03 December 2012
Rates on hold but recommendation finely balanced.
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The host with the most? Rethinking the costs and benefits of hosting major events - NZIER Insight 40
30 October 2012
Hosting large events like the Rugby World Cup are expensive undertakings. That makes value-for-money evaluation critical. But most impact event analysis doesn’t stack up, missing displacement effects. It means benefits are often far smaller than people think.
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Economy-wide impacts of industry policy
26 September 2012
NZIER conducted the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling for this latest Treasury Working Paper, 'The economy-wide impacts of industry policy'. This work was part-funded from our Public Good research fund and used two different CGE models - the Orani-G model of the NZ economy and the GTAP model of the global economy.
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Use macro-prudential tools to improve inflation targeting - NZIER Insight 39
06 September 2012
Before Graeme Wheeler starts his new job as Governor of the Reserve Bank, he must sign a new Policy Targets Agreement (PTA) that sets the goalposts for monetary policy. This is an opportunity to introduce macro-prudential tools to help ease the exchange rate impact of inflation targeting.
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Regional economic integration: more than one way to skin a cat - NZIER Insight 38
02 August 2012
By Gary HawkeRecent angst about trade agreements challenging domestic regulatory power distracts from an undeniable truth: the international implications of domestic regulatory settings have never been more important for New Zealand businesses. Rather than fighting it, New Zealand policymakers and firms need to better understand how changes to domestic regulation that are taking place in an environment of closer regional cooperation can enhance productivity, growth and incomes.
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Shadow Board favours no change as weak outlook persists - NZIER Shadow Board, July 2012
23 July 2012
Shadow Board favours no change as weak outlook persists - NZIER Shadow Board, July 2012
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Demographic change a force that firms ignore at their peril - NZIER Insight 37
18 July 2012
New Zealand's population is ageing – confronting firms to respond to the opportunities an ageing population brings. The most successful firms will need to have a clear understanding of the impacts of demographic change on not just consumer demand, but also the supply side of business. This means putting in place strategies to address the impact of ageing on the make-up of the workforce, succession planning and where new ideas will come from.
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Apple industry gained millions through science and marketing - NZIER Insight 36
26 June 2012
Consumers, supermarkets and distributors in Germany and the United Kingdom have been demanding reduced chemical use on fruit. The innovative growing programme ‘Apple Futures’ brought scientists and growers together to figure out how to reduce sprays and residues while producing export-quality fruit. Analysis from NZIER found that the research programme preserved between $25m and $35m per year of industry net income from 2008 to 2011, at a research cost of $3.2m. In just four years, the apple industry earned up to an extra $113m by reducing chemical residues to one-tenth of the maximum set by the European Union.
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A slower recovery - Consensus Forecasts, June 2012
18 June 2012
The recovery is expected to be lower and last longer, according to the latest issue of NZIER’s Consensus Forecasts. The economy will still grow; from 1.2% in the year ending March 2012 to 3.1% by 2014.
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More weight on lower OCR as economic risks grow - NZIER Shadow Board
12 June 2012
More weight on lower OCR as economic risks grow - NZIER Shadow Board
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Commit to quit - NZIER Insight 35
18 May 2012
Breaking an addiction is difficult: only about 3% of smokers who go cold turkey manage to successfully quit. New research by behavioural economists shows that getting people to make a financial bet on their success could lift those rates by over half again. Economists at NZIER think it's an option that should be considered as the government aims to achieve a smoke-free nation by 2025.
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Canterbury after the earthquakes, April 2012 update - NZIER Insight 34
18 April 2012
The Canterbury earthquakes have disrupted lives and the economy. This Insight brings together key economic indicators to provide a second snapshot of the economic disruption. We find encouraging signs of stabilisation.
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A shallower recovery - Consensus Forecasts, March 2012
19 March 2012
The recovery will be shallower than previously thought, according to the NZIER Consensus Forecasts. The economy will still grow; accelerating from 1.8% in the year ending March 2012 to 3.2% by 2014.
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Seven years lost - NZIER Insight 33
14 March 2012
Proust’s À la recherche du temps perdu (In search of lost time) inspired the Proust index in The Economist newspaper of 25 February 2012. The Economist looked across a number of economic measures to see how far back countries have slipped since the global economic crisis. We replicated the Proust index for New Zealand. The recession has cost us dear. In economic terms, New Zealand is now back in 2005.
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Grow for it - How population policies can can promote economic growth, NZIER working paper 2012/1
27 January 2012
By John YeabsleyNew Zealand struggles to grow its economy partially due to its small size and remote location. There is little that can be done to change location, but the size can be increased over time. It is feasible to adopt a population policy with the aim of the population reaching 15 million in the next 50 years – an annual growth rate of 2.5% per annum. This would bring the size and density of the population to levels closer to more prosperous European countries. Fifteen million – two and a half times current projections – is a good target, too, as it allows for several large cities, fostering competition within New Zealand.
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Lower growth for longer - Consensus Forecasts, December 2011
12 December 2011
The recovery will slower than previously thought, according to the NZIER Consensus Forecasts. But the economy will still grow: 2.2% in the year ending March 2012 and then accelerate to 3.0% in 2013 and 2014. The Canterbury reconstruction will be a key driver, with the rest of the economy growing more modestly, averaging 2.2% over the next three years.