In this section you can search or browse for material published by NZIER.
NZIER members must be logged in to access member only publications:
Quarterly Predictions, 
Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion and 
CPI Forecasts.
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Our 
Public Good material and 
NZIER reports to clients are freely available.
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Inflation now expected to get back within target band by the end of 2016 - CPI Forecasts, December 2016
12 December 2016
This publication is only available to NZIER members.
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Growth and inflation revised up - Consensus Forecasts, December 2016
12 December 2016
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have revised up their growth and inflation forecasts. A stronger household sector drives much of the upward revision to growth in the New Zealand economy.
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Pacific Cultural Centre feasibility study
06 December 2016
By Christina Leung, Michael Bealing and Dion GamperleA report for the Ministry for Pacific Peoples.
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Quarterly Predictions, December 2016
29 November 2016
This publication is only available to NZIER members. The media release can be read here.
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Quantifying the costs of non-tariff measures in the Asia-Pacific region: Initial estimates, NZIER public discussion paper 2016/4
28 November 2016
Non-tariff barriers are costing Kiwi firms billions each year. Our new public discussion paper has estimated the cost of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on trade in the APEC region. It shows that New Zealand’s exporters face NTMs that impose costs of US$5.9 billion.
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Tsunami risk: do we learn our way forward, or repeat the mistakes of the past? - NZIER Insight 66
18 November 2016
By Derek GillNew Zealand has just had a ‘near miss’ with tsunami risk – for the second time in the last three months. This Insight, which updates an earlier Insight (no. 63), reinforces the message that we need to learn from these events so that major but infrequent risks can be mitigated. We need an independent expert review so that we can take an evidence-based approach to learning from near misses. The Minister has signalled an overhaul of the ‘command and control’ structure but this review needs to look across the whole system.
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NZIER’s Shadow Board recommends the RBNZ hold the OCR steady
08 November 2016
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank continues to keep the Official Cash Rate on hold this Thursday at 2 percent. While a few members called for a 25 basis point cut, most saw it appropriate to leave the OCR unchanged.
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Trumponomics: Risks to the New Zealand economy - NZIER Insight 65
03 November 2016
It looks more likely that Donald Trump could be elected as President of the United States (POTUS). Predictions now give Trump a 20-30% chance of victory, though these numbers are changing daily and who knows what scandals might surface between now and polling day on 8 November. We are also wary that most commentators didn’t give Brexit a great chance of occurring, but were proven wrong.
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A learning system for evidence informed social policy - NZIER Insight 64
27 October 2016
Effective social policy and service delivery requires a learning system. Imagine if…New Zealand had an effective learning system to generate and capture evidence to inform spending decisions for social policy. A good learning system will include evidence about ‘doing the right things’ as well as ‘doing things right’. In this Insight we discuss three promising practices that New Zealand could adopt.
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Kiwi firms increasingly buoyant despite facing severe skills shortages, NZIER’s QSBO shows - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, October 2016
04 October 2016
This publication is only available to NZIER members. The media release can be read here.
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NZIER’s Shadow Board recommends the RBNZ hold the OCR steady
20 September 2016
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank keeps the Official Cash Rate on hold this Thursday at 2 percent. While the Shadow Board had a wide range of views, on balance there is still an underlying preference for a cut in the rate.
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Tsunami risk: more needs to be done - NZIER Insight 63
19 September 2016
By Derek GillThe recent earthquake and associated small tsunami provide a timely wakeup call. New Zealand needs to take the opportunity to learn from this ‘near miss’, and to invest in some ‘quick wins’ that can reduce our huge exposure to tsunami risk at low cost.
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Improving local government needs better policy advice - NZIER Insight 62
16 September 2016
By Cathy ScottLocal government regulatory activities have an important effect on local and regional economic growth and, ultimately, national economic growth and community wellbeing. This places a premium on local government organisations having high quality policy advice and decision-making processes in place. High quality policy advice, which supports good regulatory design and implementation and sound investment decisions, is critical to improving performance.
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Stronger growth outlook but inflation remains subdued - Consensus Forecasts, September 2016
12 September 2016
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have again revised up their growth forecasts.
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Inflation now not expected to get back within the target band until 2017 - CPI Forecasts, September 2016
12 September 2016
This publication is only available to NZIER members.
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Quarterly Predictions, September 2016
30 August 2016
This publication is only available to NZIER members. The media release can be read here.
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The high cost of (not) stopping people getting high - NZIER Insight 61
24 August 2016
By Peter WilsonIn this Insight, we bring the techniques of policy analysis to the issue of whether prohibition is the best way to reduce harm from using marijuana. Our conclusion is that a better way of lowering harmful marijuana use would be legalisation, combined with heavy taxation, regulation and education. The result should be less use, considerable fiscal savings to the government and the removal of a valuable source of revenue for criminals.
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The myth of the shrinking state? What does the data show about the size of the state in New Zealand?
11 August 2016
By Derek GillThe paper explores the urban myth that the economic reforms of the late 1980 and 1990s reduced the size of the state. It uses a variety of lenses – the state as taxer, spender, producer, employer, investor, and steward – to assess how the size and shape of the state has changed.
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NZIER’s Shadow Board recommends the RBNZ cut the OCR
09 August 2016
By Christina LeungThere is some division amongst NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board over what the Reserve Bank should do with its Official Cash Rate this Thursday, but on balance the Board recommends a 25bp cut.
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NZIER annual report 2016
08 August 2016
NZIER's annual report and full financial statements for the year ended 31 March 2016.