In this section you can search or browse for material published by NZIER.

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  • Growth and inflation revised up - Consensus Forecasts, December 2016

    12 December 2016

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have revised up their growth and inflation forecasts. A stronger household sector drives much of the upward revision to growth in the New Zealand economy.

  • Quantifying the costs of non-tariff measures in the Asia-Pacific region: Initial estimates, NZIER public discussion paper 2016/4

    28 November 2016

    Non-tariff barriers are costing Kiwi firms billions each year. Our new public discussion paper has estimated the cost of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on trade in the APEC region. It shows that New Zealand’s exporters face NTMs that impose costs of US$5.9 billion.

  • Tsunami risk: do we learn our way forward, or repeat the mistakes of the past? - NZIER Insight 66

    18 November 2016

    By Derek Gill

    New Zealand has just had a ‘near miss’ with tsunami risk – for the second time in the last three months. This Insight, which updates an earlier Insight (no. 63), reinforces the message that we need to learn from these events so that major but infrequent risks can be mitigated. We need an independent expert review so that we can take an evidence-based approach to learning from near misses. The Minister has signalled an overhaul of the ‘command and control’ structure but this review needs to look across the whole system.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board recommends the RBNZ hold the OCR steady

    08 November 2016

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank continues to keep the Official Cash Rate on hold this Thursday at 2 percent. While a few members called for a 25 basis point cut, most saw it appropriate to leave the OCR unchanged.

  • Trumponomics: Risks to the New Zealand economy - NZIER Insight 65

    03 November 2016

    It looks more likely that Donald Trump could be elected as President of the United States (POTUS). Predictions now give Trump a 20-30% chance of victory, though these numbers are changing daily and who knows what scandals might surface between now and polling day on 8 November. We are also wary that most commentators didn’t give Brexit a great chance of occurring, but were proven wrong.

  • A learning system for evidence informed social policy - NZIER Insight 64

    27 October 2016

    Effective social policy and service delivery requires a learning system. Imagine if…New Zealand had an effective learning system to generate and capture evidence to inform spending decisions for social policy. A good learning system will include evidence about ‘doing the right things’ as well as ‘doing things right’. In this Insight we discuss three promising practices that New Zealand could adopt.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board recommends the RBNZ hold the OCR steady

    20 September 2016

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank keeps the Official Cash Rate on hold this Thursday at 2 percent. While the Shadow Board had a wide range of views, on balance there is still an underlying preference for a cut in the rate.

  • Tsunami risk: more needs to be done - NZIER Insight 63

    19 September 2016

    By Derek Gill

    The recent earthquake and associated small tsunami provide a timely wakeup call. New Zealand needs to take the opportunity to learn from this ‘near miss’, and to invest in some ‘quick wins’ that can reduce our huge exposure to tsunami risk at low cost. 

  • Improving local government needs better policy advice - NZIER Insight 62

    16 September 2016

    By Cathy Scott

    Local government regulatory activities have an important effect on local and regional economic growth and, ultimately, national economic growth and community wellbeing. This places a premium on local government organisations having high quality policy advice and decision-making processes in place. High quality policy advice, which supports good regulatory design and implementation and sound investment decisions, is critical to improving performance.

  • Stronger growth outlook but inflation remains subdued - Consensus Forecasts, September 2016

    12 September 2016

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have again revised up their growth forecasts.

  • The high cost of (not) stopping people getting high - NZIER Insight 61

    24 August 2016

    By Peter Wilson

    In this Insight, we bring the techniques of policy analysis to the issue of whether prohibition is the best way to reduce harm from using marijuana. Our conclusion is that a better way of lowering harmful marijuana use would be legalisation, combined with heavy taxation, regulation and education. The result should be less use, considerable fiscal savings to the government and the removal of a valuable source of revenue for criminals.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board recommends the RBNZ cut the OCR

    09 August 2016

    By Christina Leung

    There is some division amongst NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board over what the Reserve Bank should do with its Official Cash Rate this Thursday, but on balance the Board recommends a 25bp cut.

  • Growing up in Auckland? Mapping drivers of residential land growth, NZIER public discussion paper 2016/3

    13 July 2016

    In this paper we decomposed growth in residential land into population growth, household size, and land use per capita. We found that the growth in residential land between 1996 and 2013 was identical to the rate of population growth: 28%. Population density has not change significantly during that period. Auckland's urban regulations have pushed Auckland outwards, but not upwards.

  • Do you think you’re better off alone? Impacts of Brexit on New Zealand - NZIER Insight 60

    14 June 2016

    In nine days, the United Kingdom (UK) goes to the polls to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union (EU). With the polling trends moving towards a ‘Leave’ vote in recent days, a new NZIER report “Do you think you’re better off alone?” explores what Brexit might mean for New Zealand.

  • Growth outlook revised up on robust household spending - Consensus Forecasts, June 2016

    13 June 2016

    By Christina Leung

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have revised up expectations of growth on the back of a stronger outlook for household spending. However, expectations of inflation and wage growth remain modest despite expectations of stronger activity.

  • Durable policy approaches: framework development and brief literature review, NZIER public discussion paper 2016/2

    09 June 2016

    By Chris Nixon

    NZIER, as part of its public good programme, explores important policy issues that have emerged from our economic analysis and advice.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board recommends the RBNZ holds again this Thursday

    07 June 2016

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank continue to hold the interest rate at 2.25 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

  • Bilateral Arbitration Treaty Regime : An economic analysis

    26 May 2016

    By Chris Nixon

    Non-NZIER authors Metha Wongcharupan and Georgia Whelan. The purpose of these reports has been to examine the role of a Bilateral Arbitration Treaty (BAT) in assisting exporters and importers. The main advantage of a BAT is to reduce the risks/uncertainties associated with commercial disputes resolution.

  • The road less travelled - NZIER Insight 59

    24 May 2016

    By Peter Wilson

    The announcement that central government is prepared to fund the construction of Auckland’s City Rail Link (CRL) has, once again, placed the issue of how to pay for infrastructure onto the public policy agenda. In this Insight we consider different funding arrangements.