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  • Consensus Forecasts, March 2011

    21 March 2011

    Earthquake delays recovery until 2013 Economic forecasters believe the past year was weaker than previously thought, and the recovery has been delayed due mainly to the second Canterbury earthquake, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts Survey.

  • The evolving NZ-US trade relationship : selected case studies - NZIER working paper 2011/1

    15 March 2011

    NZIER's contribution to a book that outlines ways to enhance the U.S. – New Zealand relationship.

    The bilateral relationship between New Zealand and the U.S. has never been in such good shape. The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement currently under negotiation presents a further opportunity to deepen links between New Zealand and U.S. businesses, and to enhance the broader bilateral relationship.

  • Reprioritising infrastructure projects - NZIER Insight 26

    08 March 2011

    The cost of Christchurch’s devastating earthquakes means that the Government’s prior promises to undertake specific infrastructure projects now have to be reviewed. As the Finance Minister signalled, funding Christchurch’s recovery will prompt ‘a fairly hard look at our capital investment priorities to see whether they can be shuffled around’.

  • Consensus Forecasts, December 2010

    04 March 2011

    Economic forecasters expect a slowing recovery before conditions strengthen in the March 2012 year.

  • 90-day trial periods appear successful - NZIER Insight 25

    02 February 2011

    The Government has recently announced that it will be extending the policy regarding 90-day trial periods for new workers to all employers, not just those with fewer than 20 employees. NZIER’s preliminary analysis suggests that this extension is likely have a positive impact on employment.

  • Save now, prosper later - NZIER working paper 2010/2

    01 February 2011

    Increasing New Zealand's saving rate -  a preliminary dynamic CGE analysis

  • Getting real on a tax-free threshold - NZIER Insight 24

    28 January 2011

    Labour’s proposed tax-free threshold for the first $5,000 of wages and removing GST from fresh fruit and vegetables will cost around $1.7 billion in the first year. This is to be funded by raising the top tax rate for high income earners. From an economic perspective, these proposals would be a big step backward.

  • High food prices will harm the New Zealand economy - NZIER Insight 23

    27 January 2011

    Booming foreign demand and adverse weather conditions have led to a significant increase in global food prices. In this Insight, NZIER models the impacts of high food prices on New Zealand and finds that it's not good news for Kiwis. The article also discusses policy implications as well potential international solutions.

  • New Zealand-Russia FTA: Another BRIIC in the wall - NZIER Insight 21

    16 November 2010

    Think about it this way….the gains from an FTA are strategicThe Prime Minister and Trade Minister have announced that New Zealand will be entering free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan (RBK) with the aim of concluding talks in 2012. NZIER modelling indicates the FTA will deliver gains of around $27 million to New Zealand. Dairy and meat exports to RBK will soar.

  • Tariffs in New Zealand - NZIER working paper 2010/1

    03 November 2010

    Tariffs in New Zealand - NZIER working paper 2010/1

  • Flight of the Kiwi - NZIER Insight 20

    03 November 2010

    The continuous flow of Kiwis to Australia is closely linked to Australia’s economic performance. The big difference in income between Australia and New Zealand is likely to be a major factor. Life style factors and incomes in New Zealand are still appealing enough to attract a healthy flow of immigrants that more than compensates for the flow across the ditch – which is why the Treasury has previously termed this a brain exchange rather than a brain drain. But the combined effect of a growing income gap and larger population is predicted to lead to a net outflow of 26,000 people per year.

  • Realistic valuations of our clean green assets - NZIER Insight 19

    15 October 2010

    Would you pay over $300 to ensure native birds remain at a single lake, even if you lived far away?  Maybe, or maybe not. But recent debates on mining and hydro-power developments show comparing the benefit of different uses of environmental assets is both difficult and controversial.

  • Tax relief, but Aussies still earn more - NZIER Insight 18

    30 September 2010

    Personal tax cuts from 1 October 2010 will boost take home pay for New Zealand workers. NZIER has updated its personal tax calculators to allow comparison with Australia. New Zealand’s new personal tax regime is less onerous for high income earners than Australia’s. But as Australia’s average weekly wage is about 40% higher in Australia, a typical family is much better off in Australia if disposable income is the measure. Our model family’s after tax income is 33% higher in Australia.

  • Consensus Forecasts - September 2010

    21 September 2010

    Consensus Forecasts for September 2010.

  • In defence of foreign investment - NZIER Insight 17

    10 August 2010

    Globalisation does not rest easily with all. Recent public and political outcries over foreign investment in our farms and manufacturing plants attest to this. A recent TV3 poll indicates that over three-quarters of Kiwis want overseas investment rules tightened, and the Prime Minister is concerned about “the risk that New Zealanders become tenants in their own land” (NZPA 9 August 2010).

  • Consensus Forecasts June 2010

    25 June 2010

    Consensus Forecasts for June 2010.

  • Fix flawed values of statistical life and life years to get better policy outcomes - NZIER Insight 16

    16 June 2010

    When taxpayers’ money is spent on health and safety measures in transport and healthcare services, the decisions made implicitly or explicitly place values on saving lives and casualties. In recent years there has been a move towards using standard measures of these values so that there is some consistency in decisions. This is to be welcomed, but if the measures are flawed then decision-makers can unwittingly pick the wrong projects that do not deliver maximum value for money. Given the billions of dollars of taxpayers’ money at stake in health and transport services, the return on fixing such flaws is high. Such a fix could start with a review of how these estimates are made and used in different policy areas.

  • Consensus Forecasts March 2010

    24 May 2010

    Consensus Forecasts for March 2010.

  • To mine or not to mine... - NZIER Insight 15

    29 March 2010

    The government’s proposal to remove 7,058 hectares of land from Schedule 4 restrictions on mining under the Crown Minerals Act, and to investigate further mineral resources on conservation land stirred a strong public response. It pitches the tangible potential gains of mining against the less tangible values of conservation.

  • NZ, the US and trade liberalisation: don't panic! - NZIER Insight 14

    24 March 2010

    If one was to believe some of the recent media articles in New Zealand, it would be easy to think that we’re completely mad to be negotiating a free trade agreement with the US. We beg to differ.