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  • Be a whizz at writing a RIS - NZIER Insight 31

    18 November 2011

    This Insight discusses the common pitfalls with undertaking policy development and ultimately writing a snappy, easy to follow RIS.

  • Canterbury after the earthquakes - NZIER Insight 30

    08 November 2011

    The Canterbury earthquakes have disrupted lives and the economy. This Insight brings together key economic indicators to provide a snapshot of the economic disruption. The true cost of the disaster will not be known for some time. The immediate clean-up and reconstruction is boosting demand in certain sectors like utilities, construction, safety, healthcare and social assistance. These have not fully offset reduced activity in other sectors.

  • How useful are QSBO performance indices? - NZIER working paper 2011/6

    04 November 2011

    Performance indices are used worldwide as indicators of activity in key sectors to assist analysts and decision-makers. An advantage of these indices is that, by pooling information from the series that make up the indices, idiosyncratic variation is smoothed out, and a stable and potentially more robust indicator of direction is constructed.

    Our study shows that individual sector diffusion indices from the QSBO are both good coincidental and leading indicators of economic activity.

  • QSBO as a forecasting tool - NZIER working paper 2011/5

    19 October 2011

    NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) contains a 50 year history of business opinion. While its predictive capabilities are well known, there are many more applications that can be pursued using QSBO data. This paper investigates one application, using the QSBO to forecast GDP and inflation up to four quarters ahead of official data releases.

  • Review of export elasticities - NZIER working paper 2011/4

    13 October 2011

    Assumptions on export elasticities can have a big impact on CGE model results, especially at the industry level. Export elasticities measure the responsiveness of demand for a country’s exports to a change in the world price. The greater the elasticity, the greater the change in export demand following a price shift.  We find that the size of the export elasticities has an important impact on the magnitude of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling results. We use CGE models to assess the impacts of shocks, such as a major policy change, on measures of welfare like real consumption or GDP. The export elasticity determines the amount of export revenue for a given change in export volumes. The change in revenue flows through the economy and influences measures of welfare like real consumption or GDP. The scale of the elasticities can have a material impact on these results. The results, in turn, influence whether a policy or event is thought to be ‘good’ or ‘bad’ for an economy. Understanding where these elasticities came from, how robust they are, and how they might be re-estimated is therefore important.

  • China’s economic rise Direct, indirect and induced impacts on the New Zealand economy

    07 October 2011

    Speech to Public Symposium on New Zealand, Australia and China‟s rise. The symposium was organised by Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand and the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre, held at Victoria University of Wellington on 7 April 2011.

  • Industry productivity and the Australia-New Zealand income gap - NZIER working paper 2011/3

    30 September 2011

    Differences in productivity explain much of the growing income gap between Australia and New Zealand. Good policy responses rely on understanding the sources of these differences. Seventy percent of the aggregate gap in productivity between the two countries is due to underperformance of New Zealand’s industries rather than a difference in the industrial structure of the two countries. Our findings support the idea of studying and tackling the root causes of productivity differences at the sectoral level. The significant differences in multifactor productivity also indicate the need for more focus on the quality of labour, capital, and management, and regulatory environment.  

  • Unskilled people set up for a lifetime of little work

    28 September 2011

    Unemployment in the most recent recession never reached the hurtful heights of the early 1990s. It is now hovering around 6.5 percent. This is not scary by international standards. But the headline figure obscures an uncomfortable fact.  The unemployment rate among those without formal qualifications is about 10.5 percent.

  • Resilient despite global risks - Consensus Forecasts, September 2011

    19 September 2011

    Economists expect resilience despite global risks. New Zealand economists on average believe the economy is set to recover, in part due to reconstruction of Canterbury. Global fears do not appear to have impacted on New Zealand economists’ expectations much as yet. Economic growth forecasts have been revised up a touch for the next two years, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts Survey. Economic growth will accelerate from 1.5% in the year ending March 2011 to 2.6% in 2012 and 3.7% in 2013. The Canterbury reconstruction will be the major driver, with a more modest recovery elsewhere.

  • No bias in pump price movements up or down - NZIER Insight 29

    15 September 2011

    Petrol prices have been rising in recent weeks. It may feel like petrol prices at the pump move up faster and further than they fall, but we find there is no empirical evidence to support this. Prices fall as quick and as far as they rise when crude oil prices change.

  • A brief history of the QSBO : 1961-2011 - NZIER working paper 2011/2

    18 August 2011

    NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) is one of New Zealand’s leading economic indicators. March 2011 marked the 50th anniversary of the QSBO. The QSBO provides data driven insights into how firms are responding to current economic events. Due to its reliability and responsiveness compared to related official statistics, the QSBO has become a key indicator for businesses and policy-makers. Over the past 50 years a significant number of New Zealand economists have contributed to the evolution of the QSBO.

  • Flowing on from the NPS - NZIER Insight 28

    22 July 2011

    The National Policy Statement (NPS) on Freshwater Management is a good first step, but it may leave local authorities in the dark about how to meet its intent.

  • Consensus Forecasts, June 2011

    13 June 2011

    Constructive outlook Economic forecasters are more optimistic. Economic growth forecasts have been revised up a touch for the next two years, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts Survey.

  • QSBO bibliography: selected research using the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion

    30 May 2011

    NZIER working paper 2004/2 by Robert Buckle and Brian Silverstone. Revised and updated May 2011.

  • Is Working for Families working for families? - NZIER Insight 27

    01 April 2011

    Working for Families (WFF) was introduced between 2004 and 2007 to “make work pay” and ensure income adequacy for families with children. The policy has reduced child poverty, drawn an extra 8,100 sole parents into some paid work, encouraged more of them to work 20 hours or more, and reduced the time they receive a benefit. But it also resulted in 9,300 fewer second earners in paid work, and over half of non-beneficiary families with worse incentives to earn more, at an additional cost of $1.5 billion per year.  The objectives are laudable, but we worry about the cost-effectiveness and poor incentives of WFF. To ensure value for money of government spending, it is time to reconsider WFF.

  • Consensus Forecasts, March 2011

    21 March 2011

    Earthquake delays recovery until 2013 Economic forecasters believe the past year was weaker than previously thought, and the recovery has been delayed due mainly to the second Canterbury earthquake, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts Survey.

  • The evolving NZ-US trade relationship : selected case studies - NZIER working paper 2011/1

    15 March 2011

    NZIER's contribution to a book that outlines ways to enhance the U.S. – New Zealand relationship.

    The bilateral relationship between New Zealand and the U.S. has never been in such good shape. The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement currently under negotiation presents a further opportunity to deepen links between New Zealand and U.S. businesses, and to enhance the broader bilateral relationship.

  • Reprioritising infrastructure projects - NZIER Insight 26

    08 March 2011

    The cost of Christchurch’s devastating earthquakes means that the Government’s prior promises to undertake specific infrastructure projects now have to be reviewed. As the Finance Minister signalled, funding Christchurch’s recovery will prompt ‘a fairly hard look at our capital investment priorities to see whether they can be shuffled around’.

  • Consensus Forecasts, December 2010

    04 March 2011

    Economic forecasters expect a slowing recovery before conditions strengthen in the March 2012 year.

  • 90-day trial periods appear successful - NZIER Insight 25

    02 February 2011

    The Government has recently announced that it will be extending the policy regarding 90-day trial periods for new workers to all employers, not just those with fewer than 20 employees. NZIER’s preliminary analysis suggests that this extension is likely have a positive impact on employment.