NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a weaker economic outlook for years beyond 2024 - December 2022

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a stronger starting point for the New Zealand economy over the coming year but a downward revision for 2025 and 2026. Although the economy appears resilient despite the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year, expectations that interest rates will now have to go up by more than previously expected are likely to have driven a downward revision for the later part of the projection. As more fixed-term mortgages get repriced within the next twelve months, the dampening effect of interest rate increases on economic activity will become more apparent over the coming years.