Sluggish recovery a necessary evil - Quarterly Predictions, March 2012
01 March 2012
Flat but good
“The economic outlook is flat. Most indicators are moving sideways. But given the state of the global economy and the ongoing ‘hangover’ from excessive borrowing in previous decades, this is not a bad state to be in. The slow recovery is a necessary part of putting household and government finances in order. This will put the New Zealand economy back onto a more sustainable growth path”, NZIER’s Principal Economist Shamubeel Eaqub said today.
“We expect only 1.5% growth in 2012, recovering to 2.4% in 2013. The rebuild in Canterbury will ramp up gradually from mid-2012 through to 2013. We are less optimistic than most on the timing of the rebuild, as we think persistent aftershocks, tougher building codes and insurance issues will slow Canterbury’s recovery”.
The details are in NZIER’s latest Quarterly Predictions – a comprehensive and independent commentary on the New Zealand economy and forecasts covering the next five years. Details and insights are available exclusively to NZIER members.