Resilient despite global risks - Consensus Forecasts, September 2011

19 September 2011

The NZIER Consensus Forecasts are an average of New Zealand economic forecasts compiled from a survey of financial and economic agencies. These are not NZIER’s forecasts. The average forecasts do not necessarily represent the views of individual participants. Forecasts are for March years, e.g. 2011/12 refers to the year ended March 2012.

Economists expect resilience despite global risks. New Zealand economists on average believe the economy is set to recover, in part due to reconstruction of Canterbury. Global fears do not appear to have impacted on New Zealand economists’ expectations much as yet. Economic growth forecasts have been revised up a touch for the next two years, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts Survey. Economic growth will accelerate from 1.5% in the year ending March 2011 to 2.6% in 2012 and 3.7% in 2013. The Canterbury reconstruction will be the major driver, with a more modest recovery elsewhere.

While the Canterbury reconstruction will provide a sizeable impetus, particularly to the construction sector, economists are uncertain on the actual timing and speed of reconstruction. Forecast residential construction growth ranges from 24% to 59% in the March 2013 year and the rebuild will start later than thought in June.

Surveyed economists expect inflation to average 2.7% over the next three years, near the top of the RBNZ’s target band. But global risks mean rate hikes are likely to be from early 2012. The NZD is likely to stay higher for longer. This coupled with a weaker global growth will see a more moderate, but still resilient, outlook for exports.

You can read the full release here.

Go Back