News

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board sees no OCR change as appropriate but highlights downside risks

    08 March 2016

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.50 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

    “The Reserve Bank is having to balance increased uncertainty over the global outlook and a weak inflation environment against solid momentum in the New Zealand economy and continued strength in asset prices. The recent lift in the NZD has effectively tightened monetary policy settings and will pose challenges for exporters.” said Christina Leung, Senior Economist at NZIER.

    The full release can be read here.

  • New Zealand economy picking up despite offshore volatility - Quarterly Predictions, March 2016

    02 March 2016

    Economic activity picked up over the second half of 2015, reflecting growth in the non-dairy sectors. Strong population growth, construction and tourism will be the key driving forces behind solid growth for the next few years. We expect annual GDP growth to recover to around 3% over 2016, and average 2.5% for the following years.

    An independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook is available exclusively to NZIER’s members in the latest Quarterly Predictions.

    The media release can be read here.

  • How would you spend a half-billion dollars on arts, culture and heritage? - NZIER Insight 58

    02 February 2016

    The government spends a half billion dollars on arts, culture and heritage each year but has little indication of what the public actually wants from public expenditure. At present mainly ‘experts’ decide what cultural goods and services should be supplied from the public purse.

    With New Zealand’s rapidly changing demography, low barriers to finance, production and distribution of cultural goods and services, and new technology to assist funding decisions, there is an opportunity to improve the match between public spending and public preferences.

    Simple tools are becoming available to ensure that public preferences are taken into account and that demand-side policies redress a supply side imbalance.

    The Insight can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board sees on-hold as the most appropriate action

    26 January 2016

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.50 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

    The full release can be read here.

  • Business confidence rebound suggests strong finish to 2015 - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, January 2016

    19 January 2016

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows business confidence rebounded in the final quarter of 2015. Following the sharp drop in confidence in the previous quarter which saw pessimists outnumber optimists, a net 13 percent of businesses now expect the New Zealand economy will strengthen over the coming months.

    The media release can be read here.

  • Further moderation in growth expected - Consensus Forecasts, December 2015

    14 December 2015

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have pared back growth expectations for the upcoming year. The downward revisions largely reflect expectations of weaker growth in investment. 

    Recent  developments  have  been mainly positive,  and  point  to economic activity  picking  up. Consumer  and  business  confidence  are  also  recovering.  Nonetheless,  expectations  for  annual average economic growth remain below 3% out to 2019. Forecasters expect growth to ease to 2.2% in the March 2016 year, before recovering to 2.7% by March 2017.

    The full lrelease can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board counsels the Reserve Bank to hold fire

    09 December 2015

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.75 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

    The full release can be read here.

  • New travel charge on tourists is borderline at best - NZIER Insight 56

    26 November 2015

    The Government wants to make travellers pay for the costs of border control but the border charge is a poor user charge and an inefficient tax: it will dampen services exports and hence economic growth more than other revenue raising options. If we need additional border control it would be far better to fund the system out of general taxation and welcome more visitors to New Zealand.

    Read the Insight here.

  • Growth to pick up from 2016 as economy diversifies, says NZIER - Quarterly Predictions, December 2015

    25 November 2015

    Beyond the slowing from reduced dairy income, other sectors of the New Zealand economy, such as tourism, are picking up. This will see annual economic growth recover over 2016 towards 3%.

    Diversification is happening across products and regions. Although China remains a very important market for our export sector, the recent conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) opens up opportunities to other key markets such as the US, Japan and Canada.

    Quarterly Predictions is an independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook and is only available to NZIER members.

    The full media release can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board says leave the OCR at 2.75%

    28 October 2015

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.75 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

    The full release can be read here.