31 August 2016
The solid momentum in the New Zealand economy should provide a buffer against the more fragile global outlook. Geopolitical uncertainty in the United Kingdom and United States, along with the slowing in the Chinese economy as it continues to rebalance, pose downside risks to the demand for New Zealand’s exports. But the outlook for key exports remains positive and domestic demand remains strong, as we expect the effects of strong population growth will continue to ripple across the sectors and regions in New Zealand. We continue to expect annual GDP growth will average just under 3% beyond 2016.
Quarterly Predictions an independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.
The media release can be read here.
Growing up in Auckland: mapping drivers of residential land growth, NZIER public discussion paper 2016/3
13 July 2016
NZIER’s Public Good discussion paper Growing up in Auckland? Mapping drivers of residential land growth was released today. In this paper we decomposed growth in residential land into population growth, household size, and land use per capita. We found that the growth in residential land between 1996 and 2013 was identical to the rate of population growth: 28%. Population density has not change significantly during that period. Auckland's urban regulations have pushed Auckland outwards, but not upwards.
The discussion paper can be read here.
Businesses chipper as concerns about softening demand prove unwarranted - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, July 2016
05 July 2016
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows a rebound in business confidence in the June quarter. Demand held up over the quarter, against expectations earlier this year of a softening in demand.
A net 22 percent of businesses saw increased demand over the past quarter, with a net 19 percent expecting an improvement over the next quarter.
The improvement in sentiment was widespread across the sectors and regions. Nonetheless, there remains a divergence in business confidence between the urban and rural regions, reflecting the differing fortunes of the tourism and dairy industries. Although business confidence in dairy-intensive regions including Taranaki and Southland improved, pessimists still outnumbered optimists.
28 June 2016
More than food and hobbits: Digital Nation New Zealand
On 21 June, the New Zealand Technology Industry Association (NZTech) released its report “Digital Nation New Zealand: from Tech Sector to Digital Nation”.
NZIER conducted the economic research for the report. NZIER's brief was to estimate the economic footprint of the tech sector in New Zealand.
14 June 2016
In nine days, the United Kingdom (UK) goes to the polls to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union (EU). With the polling trends moving towards a ‘Leave’ vote in recent days, a new NZIER report “Do you think you’re better off alone?” explores what Brexit might mean for New Zealand.
Read the full report here.
13 June 2016
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have revised up expectations of growth on the back of a stronger outlook for household spending. However, expectations of inflation and wage growth remain modest despite expectations of stronger activity.
The full release can be read here.
01 June 2016
The New Zealand economy is showing reasonable momentum, with households and businesses resilient in the face of offshore volatility earlier this year. We continue to expect strong population growth for the foreseeable future. Construction and tourism will remain the key drivers of solid growth for the next few years, with annual GDP growth forecast to average around 2.8% beyond 2016.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook available exclusively to NZIER’s members.
The full media release can be read here.
20 April 2016
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.25 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.
Read the full release here.
05 April 2016
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows business confidence dropped in the first quarter of 2016, with a net 1% of businesses expecting a deterioration in the economy in the next six months.
A key driver of this gloominess is that firms have consistently had their expectations of a pick-up in sales dashed in reality. Their optimism is starting to wane – firms now see weak demand ahead. Only a net 6% of businesses expect an improvement in demand – the lowest level since early 2011. Even the retail and services sectors, which has seen solid demand over 2015, are bracing for some softening in sales.
The full media release can be read here.