07 February 2017
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank keeps the Official Cash rate on hold this Thursday at 1.75 percent. While the Shadow Board was overwhelmingly in favour of leaving the OCR unchanged for now, it has shifted to a tightening bias.
The full release can be read here.
NZIER’s QSBO shows businesses continue to expect good times ahead - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, January 2017
17 January 2017
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows business confidence remained high at the end of 2016, with a net 26 percent of businesses expecting an improvement in economic conditions over the coming months. Although there was a modest softening in demand in their own business, activity indicators remain higher than a year ago. This indicates continued solid momentum in the New Zealand economy, which should provide a buffer against the downside risks from unexpected events both here and abroad.
The media release can be read here.
A world first – having a Minister Responsible for Social Investment - is supported by a NZIER paper on social investment Kiwi-style
21 December 2016
NZIER’s Chief Executive Laurie Kubiak has congratulated the Hon Amy Adams on her appointment as New Zealand’s first Minister Responsible for Social Investment.
Prime Minister Bill English championed the social investment approach as Finance Minister. He has now backed that commitment with a high-ranking Cabinet Minister charged with driving the programme forward.
NZIER has just published a detailed working paper and a shorter Insight paper that examines the Government’s social investment approach to improving the lives of disadvantaged New Zealanders. The working paper was produced in collaboration with Victoria University’s Institute of Governance and Policy Studies, and aims to answer three questions: what is the social investment approach (and what is it not), how should it be applied and where would it be most productively applied?
NZIER Insight Social investment – new right agenda or new wine in old bottles? and the working paper Defining social investment, Kiwi-style, are available from nzier.org.nz.
New Zealand economy solid enough to overcome challenges, says NZIER - Quarterly Predictions, December 2016
30 November 2016
Recent events have introduced more than the usual uncertainty into the economic outlook. The earthquakes, centred in Kaikoura and Seddon but reverberating throughout the country (particularly Wellington), have disrupted business activity and caused substantial damage to infrastructure and buildings. We expect the effects will be largely isolated to the regions which bore the brunt of the earthquakes.
Offshore, the shock election of Trump as President of the United States ups the ante on global relations. There is much uncertainty over which of the many policies he flagged prior to the election he will follow through on, but markets for now have taken his surprise win in their stride.
The New Zealand economy is in good shape, which should provide a buffer against these recent shocks. Besides tourism, construction activity continues to ramp up as housing supply increases in response to strong demand. The continued surge in net migration will underpin housing demand over the next few years. We expect annual GDP growth to average over 3% over the next five years.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook and is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.
The full media release can be read here.
Quantifying the costs of non-tariff measures in the Asia-Pacific region: Initial estimates, NZIER public discussion paper 2016/4
28 November 2016
Non-tariff barriers are costing Kiwi firms billions each year. Our new public discussion paper has estimated the cost of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on trade in the APEC region. It shows that New Zealand’s exporters face NTMs that impose costs of US$5.9 billion.
You can read the full paper here.
08 November 2016
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank continues to keep the Official Cash Rate on hold this Thursday at 2 percent. While a few members called for a 25 basis point cut, most saw it appropriate to leave the OCR unchanged.
You can read the full release here.
Kiwi firms increasingly buoyant despite facing severe skills shortages, NZIER’s QSBO shows - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, October 2016
04 October 2016
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows a further strengthening in business confidence over the September quarter, with a net 26 percent of firms expecting improved economic conditions over the coming months.
The improvement in confidence was broad-based across most regions, with optimists outnumbering pessimists in dairy-intensive regions such as Taranaki and Southland. The recent increase in global dairy prices and subsequent upward revision by Fonterra to its dairy payout forecast have reduced the risks to the dairy sector and boosted confidence. Nonetheless, confidence remains strongest in tourism-intensive regions such as Auckland, Otago and the Bay of Plenty.
The media release can be read here.
The full results from NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion are available only to NZIER members.
20 September 2016
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank keeps the Official Cash Rate on hold this Thursday at 2 percent. While the Shadow Board had a wide range of views, on balance there is still an underlying preference for a cut in the rate.
The release can be read here.
16 September 2016
Local government regulatory activities have an important effect on local and regional economic growth and, ultimately, national economic growth and community wellbeing. This places a premium on local government organisations having high quality policy advice and decision-making processes in place. High quality policy advice, which supports good regulatory design and implementation and sound investment decisions, is critical to improving performance.
Read the full Insight here.