08 May 2018
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board’s overwhelming view remains one of no change to the Official Cash Rate ahead of the Reserve Bank’s release of the May Monetary Policy Statement on Thursday.
Report can be read here.
NZIER's QSBO shows businesses gloomy as costs rise and profitability gets squeezed, Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion - April 2018
10 April 2018
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows businesses continue to expect a deterioration in economic conditions over the coming months. Business confidence had fallen sharply in the December 2017 quarter in the wake of the new Labour-led Government taking office, and this pessimism has carried over into the first quarter of 2018.
This continued pessimism about the economy remains in contrast to firms’ expectations about demand in their own business, which continues to hold up. A net 15 percent of businesses nationwide reported a lift in demand in their own business in the March 2018 quarter.
The full results are available only to NZIER members.
Read the media release here.
20 March 2018
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board largely kept unchanged its views on what the Reserve Bank should do with the Official Cash Rate. The Shadow Board continues to recommend the OCR be left on hold this Thursday at 1.75 percent. With signs inflation remains contained, Board members continued to see no urgency for the Reserve Bank to start tightening monetary policy.
19 March 2018
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts expects a stronger growth outlook for the next few years.
Read the full release here.
28 February 2018
The New Zealand growth outlook remains positive, as detailed in the latest NZIER Quarterly Predictions. Businesses are feeling more downbeat following the General Election but the effects so far have largely been on sentiment rather than actual economic activity. Annual average growth is forecast to average below 3 percent over the next five years.
An independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.
Read the full media release here.
NZIER’s Shadow Board recommends keeping the OCR on hold amidst a soft inflation environment and uncertainty over the new Government
07 February 2018
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board continues to recommend the Reserve Bank leave the Official Cash Rate on hold this Thursday at 1.75 percent. Businesses are pessimistic about the effects of new Government policies. Along with softer than expected inflation, Board members indicated the Reserve Bank should remain cautious as to when it starts to lift the OCR.
NZIER’s QSBO shows businesses more pessimistic after the election, Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion - January 2018
16 January 2018
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows a sharp drop in business confidence following the General Election, with a net 11 percent of businesses expecting economic conditions to deteriorate over the first half of 2018. Business confidence had fallen in the previous quarter ahead of the General Election, and it appears uncertainty over new Government policies have made businesses even more downbeat.
The media release can be read here.
11 December 2017
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts expects a modestly softer growth outlook for the next few years. Overall, the growth outlook remains positive.
Read the full release here.
06 December 2017
A report to New Zealand Film Commission, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, the Ministry for Culture and Heritage, New Zealand On Air, Auckland Tourism, Events and Economic Development, Wellington Regional Economic Development Agency.
NZIER’s economic modelling demonstrates that without the New Zealand Screen Production Grant, exports would shrink by $257 million, household consumption by $144 million and real GDP by $176 million. Read the report here.
06 December 2017
The Social Investment Approach – a combination of big data, client segmentation and different ways of governing how social services are delivered – is an important new development underway. Jonathan Boston (VUW) and Derek Gill (NZIER) are the editors of an important new book “Social Investment - A New Zealand Policy Experiment”. The book brings together the views of a range of practitioners, researchers and social service providers about the strengths, opportunities and potential pitfalls of the new approach.
This book is published by BWB.