News

  • Businesses start 2016 in a more downbeat mood - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, April 2016

    05 April 2016

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows business confidence dropped in the first quarter of 2016, with a net 1% of businesses expecting a deterioration in the economy in the next six months.

    A key driver of this gloominess is that firms have consistently had their expectations of a pick-up in sales dashed in reality. Their optimism is starting to wane – firms now see weak demand ahead. Only a net 6% of businesses expect an improvement in demand – the lowest level since early 2011. Even the retail and services sectors, which has seen solid demand over 2015, are bracing for some softening in sales.

    The full media release can be read here.

  • Stronger growth but weaker inflation outlook - Consensus Forecasts, March 2016

    14 March 2016

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have revised up expectations of growth and employment through to 2019. Despite the more favourable growth outlook, expectations for inflation and wage growth have been lowered.

    Read the full release here.

  • NZIER reacts to RBNZ March Monetary Policy Statement, media release - March 2016

    10 March 2016

    Reserve Bank surprises us with a 25bp cut to OCR

    We expected the OCR to remain on hold across 2016. Today the Reserve Bank proved us wrong – it cut the OCR by 25 basis points.
    The Reserve Bank’s cut to 2.25% was based on a deteriorating global outlook, a higher than expected Kiwi dollar and lower inflation expectations.  

    Our own view was centred on two key factors: our forecasts of continued momentum in the New Zealand economy pointing to economic growth of 2.5 to 3.0% for the next few years; and the weight we attached to the Reserve Bank’s view on financial stability risks from asset prices and the Auckland housing market in particular.
    In hindsight we took too much from Governor Wheeler’s speech in February that highlighted the many factors besides consumer price inflation, including asset prices, the Reserve Bank is required to take into account under its Policy Targets Agreement.

    The full media release can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board sees no OCR change as appropriate but highlights downside risks

    08 March 2016

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.50 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

    “The Reserve Bank is having to balance increased uncertainty over the global outlook and a weak inflation environment against solid momentum in the New Zealand economy and continued strength in asset prices. The recent lift in the NZD has effectively tightened monetary policy settings and will pose challenges for exporters.” said Christina Leung, Senior Economist at NZIER.

    The full release can be read here.

  • New Zealand economy picking up despite offshore volatility - Quarterly Predictions, March 2016

    02 March 2016

    Economic activity picked up over the second half of 2015, reflecting growth in the non-dairy sectors. Strong population growth, construction and tourism will be the key driving forces behind solid growth for the next few years. We expect annual GDP growth to recover to around 3% over 2016, and average 2.5% for the following years.

    An independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook is available exclusively to NZIER’s members in the latest Quarterly Predictions.

    The media release can be read here.

  • How would you spend a half-billion dollars on arts, culture and heritage? - NZIER Insight 58

    02 February 2016

    The government spends a half billion dollars on arts, culture and heritage each year but has little indication of what the public actually wants from public expenditure. At present mainly ‘experts’ decide what cultural goods and services should be supplied from the public purse.

    With New Zealand’s rapidly changing demography, low barriers to finance, production and distribution of cultural goods and services, and new technology to assist funding decisions, there is an opportunity to improve the match between public spending and public preferences.

    Simple tools are becoming available to ensure that public preferences are taken into account and that demand-side policies redress a supply side imbalance.

    The Insight can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board sees on-hold as the most appropriate action

    26 January 2016

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.50 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

    The full release can be read here.

  • Business confidence rebound suggests strong finish to 2015 - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, January 2016

    19 January 2016

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows business confidence rebounded in the final quarter of 2015. Following the sharp drop in confidence in the previous quarter which saw pessimists outnumber optimists, a net 13 percent of businesses now expect the New Zealand economy will strengthen over the coming months.

    The media release can be read here.

  • Further moderation in growth expected - Consensus Forecasts, December 2015

    14 December 2015

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have pared back growth expectations for the upcoming year. The downward revisions largely reflect expectations of weaker growth in investment. 

    Recent  developments  have  been mainly positive,  and  point  to economic activity  picking  up. Consumer  and  business  confidence  are  also  recovering.  Nonetheless,  expectations  for  annual average economic growth remain below 3% out to 2019. Forecasters expect growth to ease to 2.2% in the March 2016 year, before recovering to 2.7% by March 2017.

    The full lrelease can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board counsels the Reserve Bank to hold fire

    09 December 2015

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.75 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

    The full release can be read here.