• NZIER’s Shadow Board divided on where OCR should be

    23 September 2019

    There has been increased divergence in views amongst the NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board on what the OCR should be at the OCR Review this Wednesday. This widening in the range of views follows the Reserve Bank’s surprise decision to cut the OCR by 50 basis points at its August meeting. Although Shadow Board members generally called for keeping the OCR on hold, some saw a higher OCR as appropriate. The views were taken before the release of June quarter GDP.

    Read the full release here.

  • Funding roads in a carbon-zero future, NZIER public discussion paper 2019/2

    20 September 2019

    The roading system in New Zealand is essential and its economic importance is clear. At any time of the day or night you might see different activities associated with construction, tourism, services, manufacturing and agriculture.This takes on new significance as we decarbonise the economy.

    Road transport is important not only because the annual resources used dwarf other transport modes, but because it also connects other transport modes. The contribution to the growth of the New Zealand economy of transport is not only vital for moving goods around but it is also a substantial GDP contributor. Total sales of road transport industry activity to the rest of the economy is around $8.3 billion. The share of GDP is roughly 1.5% or $3.5 billion (March year 2016).

    Read the discussion paper here.

  • NZIER AGM - NZIER Economics Award winner and guest speaker

    04 September 2019

    Last night we held our AGM.

    The NZIER Economics Award for 2019 was presented to Dr John McDermott, pictured with Dr Dianne McCarthy, NZIER's chair.

    Read the Award citation here.

    Our guest speaker was Dr Alan Bollard.

    He gave insightful and balanced analysis going 'Inside the Economic Brain of Donald J Trump'.

    Dr Bollard delved into the economic explanation behind President Trump’s tweets. The neural map below illustrates Trump focuses on international economic events, where the President has more power and influence, than on domestic matters.

    Note the full talk is not publicly available.

  • NZIER sees offshore developments weighing on the growth outlook - Quarterly Predictions, September 2019

    28 August 2019

    Growth is expected to slow over the coming years as offshore volatility weighs on demand, as detailed in the latest NZIER Quarterly Predictions. “We now expect annual GDP growth to average around 2.2 percent over the next five years. With the trade war between the US and China showing little sign of being resolved anytime soon, this is likely to dampen demand for New Zealand exports from 2020.”, said Principal Economist Christina Leung.

    An independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook is available exclusively to NZIER’s members in the latest Quarterly Predictions.

    Read the media release here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board sees stronger easing bias as appropriate

    05 August 2019

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board have lowered their recommendation for the OCR but remained centred on a no-change decision for Wednesday. There was a wide range of views this time, and NZIER Shadow Board members distinguished between their views on what they think the Reserve Bank will do, versus what it should do. Nonetheless, there was a stronger easing bias amongst the NZIER Shadow Board, relative to June.

    Link to release.

  • NZIER's QSBO shows deterioration in demand and sentiment

    02 July 2019

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows business confidence fell to its lowest level since March 2009, with a net 31 percent of businesses expecting a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months.

    Adding to the negative news was a further decline in firms’ own trading activity, with a net 4 percent of businesses reporting reduced demand in the June quarter. A net 4 percent of businesses also expect demand to fall in the next quarter – the weakest level since June 2009. These measures suggest a softening in annual GDP growth to below 2 percent over the second half of 2019.

    Read the media release here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board adjusts OCR recommendation in the wake of cut

    24 June 2019

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board has adjusted their recommendation in the wake of the Reserve Bank’s OCR cut in May. The NZIER Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank should leave the OCR on hold at the OCR Review on Wednesday. However, there have been mixed views as to whether the OCR should have been cut in the first place. Nonetheless, an easing bias remains amongst the NZIER Shadow Board.

    Read the release here.

  • NZIER sees softer growth outlook in the near term - Quarterly Predictions, June 2019

    29 May 2019

    Growth is expected to slow over the coming year before recovering from 2020, as detailed in the latest NZIER Quarterly Predictions. “We now expect annual GDP growth to average around 2.6 percent over the next five years. While this is well below the average of 3.4 percent over the previous five years, it still represents a sustained period of growth”, said Principal Economist Christina Leung. 

    Read the media release here.

  • Kia māia: Be bold, Improving the wellbeing of children living in poverty, NZIER public discussion paper 2019/1

    20 May 2019

    Our latest research shows that increasing income is not enough to fix child poverty. Expanding the real choices people have is much harder than just providing resources, but it's what is needed to give all Kiwi kids a fair go.

    Our discussion paper can be read here.

  • The Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994: How a nonbinding policy instrument proved highly powerful - NZIER working paper 2018/1

    09 May 2019

    Countries that don’t learn from their policy successes and failures are doomed to repeat the failures of the past.

    ANU Press published our volume (NZIER working paper 2018/1)  in, Successful Public Policy: Lessons from Australia and New Zealand. It is available here.

    This chapter and others in the book can help inform New Zealanders, so we can do better than that.