25 May 2017
We see Budget 2017 as a continuation of fiscal prudence, which is sensible”, NZIER’s Senior Economist Christina Leung says. “But we would have liked to have seen more ambition, given the strength of the government’s books”.
Read the full media release here.
11 May 2017
New Zealand has 20 district health boards (DHBs) for a population of less than 5 million. Because of a lack of transparency, we do not know the costs of administering DHBs. But prima facie evidence suggests it is time to consolidate DHBs and free up administrative resources to use for additional services. In health care, size matters. Returns to scale and quality gains come with size. Optimising governance arrangements and the scale of services means more choice and improved health outcomes as pressures from ageing and public expectations intensify.
The full Insight can be read here.
04 April 2017
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows a modest drop in business confidence in the first quarter of 2017. A net 16 percent of businesses expect better economic conditions over the coming months, a fall from a net 26 percent of businesses in the previous quarter.
The medial release can be read here.
21 March 2017
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank leaves the Official Cash Rate on hold this Thursday at 1.75 percent. The Shadow Board continues to see a tightening bias as appropriate.
Read the full release here.
10 March 2017
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows growth forecasts have been revised up from 2018, while inflation forecasts are broadly unchanged relative to the previous quarter.
Read the full release here.
NZIER says New Zealand economy remains solid, against uncertain global backdrop - Quarterly Predictions, March 2017
27 February 2017
Many of the key themes for the domestic outlook that we outlined in our previous issue of Quarterly Predictions have continued into 2017. Net migration continues to set new records, boosting demand across many sectors. We continue to expect annual growth in the New Zealand economy to track over 3 percent on average over the next five years.
We expect construction and tourism will remain key drivers of growth, with activity broadening beyond Auckland. A recovery in global dairy prices is also boosting confidence in the rural regions. With businesses feeling more optimistic about demand holding up at high levels, many are planning for expansion through hiring and investment.
Against the solid momentum in the New Zealand economy are heightened geo-political risks from offshore. From the unpredictability of US President Trump’s policy actions to the ongoing political uncertainty across Europe, the shift towards protectionist and anti-establishment sentiment skews risks to the downside.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook available exclusively to NZIER members.
The media release can be read here.
07 February 2017
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank keeps the Official Cash rate on hold this Thursday at 1.75 percent. While the Shadow Board was overwhelmingly in favour of leaving the OCR unchanged for now, it has shifted to a tightening bias.
The full release can be read here.
NZIER’s QSBO shows businesses continue to expect good times ahead - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, January 2017
17 January 2017
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows business confidence remained high at the end of 2016, with a net 26 percent of businesses expecting an improvement in economic conditions over the coming months. Although there was a modest softening in demand in their own business, activity indicators remain higher than a year ago. This indicates continued solid momentum in the New Zealand economy, which should provide a buffer against the downside risks from unexpected events both here and abroad.
The media release can be read here.
A world first – having a Minister Responsible for Social Investment - is supported by a NZIER paper on social investment Kiwi-style
21 December 2016
NZIER’s Chief Executive Laurie Kubiak has congratulated the Hon Amy Adams on her appointment as New Zealand’s first Minister Responsible for Social Investment.
Prime Minister Bill English championed the social investment approach as Finance Minister. He has now backed that commitment with a high-ranking Cabinet Minister charged with driving the programme forward.
NZIER has just published a detailed working paper and a shorter Insight paper that examines the Government’s social investment approach to improving the lives of disadvantaged New Zealanders. The working paper was produced in collaboration with Victoria University’s Institute of Governance and Policy Studies, and aims to answer three questions: what is the social investment approach (and what is it not), how should it be applied and where would it be most productively applied?
NZIER Insight Social investment – new right agenda or new wine in old bottles? and the working paper Defining social investment, Kiwi-style, are available from nzier.org.nz.
New Zealand economy solid enough to overcome challenges, says NZIER - Quarterly Predictions, December 2016
30 November 2016
Recent events have introduced more than the usual uncertainty into the economic outlook. The earthquakes, centred in Kaikoura and Seddon but reverberating throughout the country (particularly Wellington), have disrupted business activity and caused substantial damage to infrastructure and buildings. We expect the effects will be largely isolated to the regions which bore the brunt of the earthquakes.
Offshore, the shock election of Trump as President of the United States ups the ante on global relations. There is much uncertainty over which of the many policies he flagged prior to the election he will follow through on, but markets for now have taken his surprise win in their stride.
The New Zealand economy is in good shape, which should provide a buffer against these recent shocks. Besides tourism, construction activity continues to ramp up as housing supply increases in response to strong demand. The continued surge in net migration will underpin housing demand over the next few years. We expect annual GDP growth to average over 3% over the next five years.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook and is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.
The full media release can be read here.