• NZIER’s Shadow Board considers negative OCR unnecessary

    10 August 2020

    We are continuing to seek our Shadow Board members’ views on whether the Official Cash Rate (OCR) should be negative and if the Reserve Bank should expand its quantitative easing (QE).
    Fewer Board members this quarter consider further monetary policy stimulus is appropriate, particularly when it comes to introducing a negative OCR. While there was support for an expansion of the Reserve Bank’s Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) programme over the coming year, this stimulus was considered more appropriate beyond the upcoming meeting.

    Read the full release here.

  • Land-based industries see New Zealand through tough COVID times - NZIER Insight 90

    21 July 2020

    Land-based industries (livestock, forestry and horticulture) have performed well over the lockdown period and as the Covid-19 crisis has continued overseas, NZIER find in an Insight released today.

    Read the Insight here.

  • NZIER’s QSBO shows sharp fall in activity with businesses still downbeat - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, July 2020

    07 July 2020

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) surveyed firms over the main period of the COVID-19 lockdown.

    The results show New Zealand economic activity dropped sharply in the June quarter. The net 37 percent of businesses reporting a decline in own trading activity brings this measure to the lowest level since March 2009. This is not surprising, given the tight trading restrictions under Alert Level 4.

    However, a net 25 percent of businesses also expect weaker demand in the next quarter. And although there was a slight improvement in headline business confidence, businesses remain pessimistic about general economic conditions over the coming months. Business confidence tends to soften heading into a general election, with businesses holding off on major spending decisions given uncertainty over the outcome. This quarter, the pre-election uncertainty is compounded by uncertainty over how the COVID-19 outbreak will play out.

    Read the media release here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board continues to favour further QE over a negative OCR

    22 June 2020

    There remains a wide range of views amongst the Shadow Board on whether more monetary policy stimulus is required, and in what form. Overall, the consensus amongst the Shadow Board is that more stimulus would be required over the next twelve months, with the majority favouring an expansion of the Reserve Bank’s quantitative easing programme.

    Read the release here.

  • NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows growth outlook highly uncertain - Consensus Forecasts, June 2020

    15 June 2020

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts showed an even greater degree of uncertainty over the growth outlook ahead. With New Zealand having eliminated the number of active cases of COVID-19 and moving to Alert Level 1 on 8 June, focus now turns to keeping imported cases at bay on the long road to recovery for the economy. The large range in forecasts across the key economic measures highlights the uncertainty in how this recovery will pan out.

    Consensus Forecasts are avilable here.

  • Tourism beyond Covid-19 – is the future sustainable, local and green?

    09 June 2020

    The post-Covid Budget delivered some big numbers in offering support to help the economy recover from lockdown, but its effect still depends on how industry responds to government funded support. Much of the assistance seems aimed at restoring activity to its former levels, rather than pivoting away from activities that, even before Covid-19 appeared, were beginning to show signs of unsustainability.

    One such activity was tourism, which was raising concerns in some places about excessive use, congestion and environmental degradation. With borders closed for the foreseeable future New Zealand tourism is facing a loss of substantial business. But just how large is the hole in the industry’s fortunes, what can it be plugged with in the short term, and how can the industry reposition itself over the long term for a more sustainable future?

    Read the Insight here.

  • Coronavirus to deliver a sharp shock to the New Zealand economy - Quarterly Predictions, June 2020

    27 May 2020

    NZIER forecasts that the New Zealand economy will recover unevenly from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. We expect the decline in activity will be concentrated in the June 2020 quarter, largely reflecting the direct impact of containment measures. Despite a forecast bounce-back in activity from the June 2020 quarter low, NZIER expects activity to remain below levels forecast in the absence of the outbreak, as weaker consumer and business confidence weigh on spending.

    New Zealand has undergone unprecedented changes since March, reflecting the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. The effects of the physical restrictions on the New Zealand economy have been sharp, widespread and inevitable. Given the relatively short amount of time spent in lockdown reflecting our success in eliminating COVID-19, the New Zealand economy looks increasingly likely to be at the optimistic end of the scenarios that had initially been considered by The Treasury. With New Zealand moving down the alert levels, more businesses are reopening and offering a wider range of goods and services.

    Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.

    Read the media release here.

  • Targeting support for rural communities in the COVID-19 recovery - NZIER Insight 86

    22 May 2020

    No regions will escape the economic downturn, but some rural communities will face bigger impacts than others. NZIER looks at how to identify and target support at communities most affected by COVID-19.

    Read our Insight here.

  • Business confidence plummets in NZIER's QSBO - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, April 2020

    07 April 2020

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) is being issued in extraordinary times. The result captures responses received up to 20 March 2020 – just prior to the announcement by the Government of the Alert Level 4 lockdown across the country. It thus gives us at least a partial glimpse into how firms think COVID-19 will impact them and the economy.

    The QSBO shows a sharp decline in business confidence, with a net 67 percent of businesses expecting a deterioration in general economic conditions.

    Read the full media release here.