07 April 2020
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) is being issued in extraordinary times. The result captures responses received up to 20 March 2020 – just prior to the announcement by the Government of the Alert Level 4 lockdown across the country. It thus gives us at least a partial glimpse into how firms think COVID-19 will impact them and the economy.
The QSBO shows a sharp decline in business confidence, with a net 67 percent of businesses expecting a deterioration in general economic conditions.
Read the full media release here.
17 March 2020
Dear members, clients and stakeholders of NZIER
Given the developing nature of the Covid-19 situation, I want to provide you with some information about what NZIER is doing. Our prime objective is to make sure that our employees, members, clients and other stakeholders are safe and well and receiving the support they need.
NZIER remains open for business and we will continue to serve our clients and members and deliver projects on time, but with some restrictions on face-to-face meetings and changes to business practices.
- our offices remain open for now, with all NZIER staff able to work from home seamlessly using our cloud and remote systems.
- we are moving in-person meetings to virtual meetings using Zoom, Teams and Skype.
- the QSBO lockup on 7 April and our quarterly economic briefings in May could become online-only events. More details to follow on this.
- there will be no Shadow Board publication on 25 March
We expect to continue to operate with little disruption, with our staff working from home as needed using our cloud and remote systems that enable our teams to work together remotely.
We will update our response as needed as the situation develops. Thank you for your valued support and please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or concerns about active projects or workstreams.
16 March 2020
Note: Consensus Forecasts were finalised prior to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s emergency OCR cut of 75bp which was announced at 8am this morning.
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts highlights the large degree of uncertainty over the effects of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak on the New Zealand economy. This uncertainty is reflected in the range of forecasts across the key economic measures being greater than usual.
Link to release.
05 March 2020
NZIER report to New Zealand College of Midwives.
NZIER finds that improved well-being and equity for mothers and babies depends on addressing the 3Cs faced by community midwives - complexity, caseloads and conditions.
Read the report here.
NZIER expects coronavirus and drought to put a brief handbrake on the economy - Quarterly Predictions, March 2020
26 February 2020
The combination of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak and drought is expected to deliver a short sharp shock to the New Zealand economy, as detailed in the latest NZIER Quarterly Predictions. “Exporters are expected to bear the brunt of the effects, and we expect activity will be flat in the March quarter. Although we expect the effects to linger over the remainder of 2020, as they lessen over time growth should pick up from the March low”, said Principal Economist Christina Leung.
Read the media release here.
20 February 2020
Using evidence from health and economic literature, health economists Sarah Hogan and Todd Krieble find that New Zealand should do more to prepare for pandemics and assist the Pacific Islands. New Zealand should not rely on travel bans which are likely to be ineffective. Read the Insight here.
10 February 2020
There remains a wide range of views amongst the NZIER Policy Shadow Board on the appropriate level of the OCR at the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) release on Wednesday. Although Shadow Board members acknowledged the positive developments in the New Zealand economy, the recent coronavirus outbreak has introduced further uncertainty over the global growth outlook. Overall, Shadow Board members still called for the OCR to be kept on hold. Read the release here.
NZIER’s QSBO shows pick-up in business confidence - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, January 2020
14 January 2020
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows an improvement in business confidence in the final quarter of 2019, with a smaller proportion of businesses expecting a worsening in general economic conditions.
Meanwhile firms’ own trading activity, which provides a better indication of demand in the New Zealand economy, remained soft. The proportion of businesses reporting weaker demand in December 2019 remained at 11 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting annual GDP growth of around 1 percent towards the end of 2019.
This publication is only available to NZIER members. The media release can be read here.
16 December 2019
The growth outlook has been revised down slightly in the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts, relative to the previous quarter.
Read the release here.
03 December 2019
Today the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Incorporated (NZIER) has released its inaugural Summer Reading List for the Prime Minister.
“NZIER supports New Zealanders reading, taking time to think long thoughts, and discussing them. Summer is good for that” said NZIER’s Chief Executive Laurence Kubiak.
The list was prepared as part of the NZIER Public Good programme, which carries out economic research and thinking aimed at promoting a better understanding of New Zealand’s important economic challenges.
Read more here.