• NZIER’s QSBO shows pick-up in business confidence - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, January 2020

    14 January 2020

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows an improvement in business confidence in the final quarter of 2019, with a smaller proportion of businesses expecting a worsening in general economic conditions.

    Meanwhile firms’ own trading activity, which provides a better indication of demand in the New Zealand economy, remained soft. The proportion of businesses reporting weaker demand in December 2019 remained at 11 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting annual GDP growth of around 1 percent towards the end of 2019.

    This publication is only available to NZIER members. The media release can be read here.

  • NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a slightly lower growth outlook - Consensus Forecasts, December 2019

    16 December 2019

    The growth outlook has been revised down slightly in the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts, relative to the previous quarter.

    Read the release here.

  • Summer Reading List for the Prime Minister 2019

    03 December 2019

    Today the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Incorporated (NZIER) has released its inaugural Summer Reading List for the Prime Minister.
    “NZIER supports New Zealanders reading, taking time to think long thoughts, and discussing them. Summer is good for that” said NZIER’s Chief Executive Laurence Kubiak.

    The list was prepared as part of the NZIER Public Good programme, which carries out economic research and thinking aimed at promoting a better understanding of New Zealand’s important economic challenges.

    Read more here.

  • NZIER sees weaker growth outlook as uncertainty weighs on demand - Quarterly Predictions, December 2019

    27 November 2019

    Growth is expected to slow further over the coming years as uncertainty here and abroad make businesses and households more cautious about spending, as detailed in the latest NZIER Quarterly Predictions.

    Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.

    Read the media release here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board remains divided on where OCR should be

    11 November 2019

    The range of views amongst the NZIER Policy Shadow Board on the appropriate level of the OCR at the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) release on Wednesday has widened since September. Shadow Board members, on average, still called for the OCR to be kept on hold, but there was an increased skew towards a higher OCR.

    Read the release here.

  • Integrated Safety Response (ISR) evaluations

    15 October 2019

    Family violence is one of the most pressing social problems facing New Zealand. NZIER worked with Elaine Mossman and the Joint Venture Business Unit (for NZ Police and the Ministry of Justice) to evaluate the return on investment in a crisis response to family violence.

    The focus was on reviewing the effectiveness of the pilots of an Integrated Service Response in Christchurch and Hamilton. The report demonstrated the power of economists working alongside professional evaluators to review programme effectiveness. The economic analysis showed that the benefits of the Integrated Safety Response unambiguously exceeded the costs. The results supported decision-makers through quantitative evidence that cut through to noisy discourse surrounding the cost.

    Read more here. [Link takes you to the Ministry of Justice's website.]

  • NZIER’s QSBO points to further slowing in activity - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, October 2019

    01 October 2019

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows a further drop in business confidence in the September quarter. A net 35 percent of businesses expect a worsening in general economic conditions – still the weakest level since March 2009.

    There was also a decline in firms’ own trading activity, which is a better indicator of demand in the New Zealand economy. The net 11 percent of businesses reporting demand fell over the quarter brings this measure to its weakest level since September 2010. The result suggests annual GDP growth will ease below 1 percent later this year.

    This publication is only available to NZIER members. The media release can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board divided on where OCR should be

    23 September 2019

    There has been increased divergence in views amongst the NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board on what the OCR should be at the OCR Review this Wednesday. This widening in the range of views follows the Reserve Bank’s surprise decision to cut the OCR by 50 basis points at its August meeting. Although Shadow Board members generally called for keeping the OCR on hold, some saw a higher OCR as appropriate. The views were taken before the release of June quarter GDP.

    Read the full release here.

  • Funding roads in a carbon-zero future, NZIER public discussion paper 2019/2

    20 September 2019

    The roading system in New Zealand is essential and its economic importance is clear. At any time of the day or night you might see different activities associated with construction, tourism, services, manufacturing and agriculture.This takes on new significance as we decarbonise the economy.

    Road transport is important not only because the annual resources used dwarf other transport modes, but because it also connects other transport modes. The contribution to the growth of the New Zealand economy of transport is not only vital for moving goods around but it is also a substantial GDP contributor. Total sales of road transport industry activity to the rest of the economy is around $8.3 billion. The share of GDP is roughly 1.5% or $3.5 billion (March year 2016).

    Read the discussion paper here.

  • NZIER AGM - NZIER Economics Award winner and guest speaker

    04 September 2019

    Last night we held our AGM.

    The NZIER Economics Award for 2019 was presented to Dr John McDermott, pictured with Dr Dianne McCarthy, NZIER's chair.

    Read the Award citation here.

    Our guest speaker was Dr Alan Bollard.

    He gave insightful and balanced analysis going 'Inside the Economic Brain of Donald J Trump'.

    Dr Bollard delved into the economic explanation behind President Trump’s tweets. The neural map below illustrates Trump focuses on international economic events, where the President has more power and influence, than on domestic matters.

    Note the full talk is not publicly available.