Unprecedented stimulus supports a V-shaped recovery for the New Zealand economy - NZIER Quarterly Predictions, December 2020
24 November 2020
Recent developments point to a strong rebound in economic activity, as the New Zealand economy responds to the unprecedented amount of stimulus measures implemented by the Government and Reserve Bank. NZIER forecasts annual average GDP growth to rise to around 5 percent by early 2022, before moderating to average around 3 percent in the subsequent years.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members. Read the media release here.
24 November 2020
A newly released report from the Helen Clark Foundation and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research calls for a minimum wage boost to improve inclusion and incentivise investment in capital and skills, leading to greater productivity. Read the report here.
09 November 2020
We are continuing to seek our Shadow Board members’ views on whether the Official Cash Rate (OCR) should be negative and if the Reserve Bank should expand its quantitative easing (QE). Board members once again saw a reduced need for a negative OCR and further QE over the coming year. Read the full release here.
20 October 2020
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows business confidence has improved, reflecting a pick-up in demand over the September quarter.
A net 1 percent of businesses reported an increase in own trading activity – a turnaround from the net 37 percent reporting a decline in the previous quarter. This result supports our expectations of a V-shaped recovery in economic activity, as the New Zealand economy responds to the unprecedented amount of stimulus measures implemented by the Government and Reserve Bank.
Read the media release here.
QSBO is available to NZIER members only.
06 October 2020
COVID-19 has proved challenging for the agri-food sector. From pasture to plate, farms and businesses in the agri-food sector have reported feeling squeezed between rising costs and lower prices.
To explore the impacts of COVID-19 on the agri-food sector, NZIER collaborated with an Australia-New Zealand team, including AgResearch and The University of Queensland. NZIER led an online survey of farms and businesses across the two countries.
In this Insight we delve in to the survey responses from New Zealand. Comparative results are expected to be published later this year.
Read the Insight here.
21 September 2020
We are continuing to seek our Shadow Board members’ views on whether the Official Cash Rate (OCR) should be negative and if the Reserve Bank should expand its quantitative easing (QE).
Fewer Board members see further quantitative easing as appropriate over the coming year. This follows the Reserve Bank’s decision to expand its Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) programme up to $100 billion at the August meeting.
Read the full release here.
14 September 2020
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts continues to show a wide range of forecasts for the economy, reflecting a large degree of uncertainty over the growth outlook. The announcement on 11 August of new COVID-19 cases in the community, and the subsequent return of Auckland to Alert Level 3 and the rest of New Zealand to Alert Level 2, has added to the uncertainty over how the economic recovery will pan out over the coming years. The most optimistic forecast for the New Zealand economy is a decline in GDP of 5 percent on average for the year to March 2021, while the most pessimistic is a decline of 11.8 percent.
Read the release here.
10 September 2020
NZIER has partnered with ERIA, in a comparative study of international regulatory cooperation in all ASEAN countries as well as New Zealand. The finding of the research can be found here: https://www.eria.org/publications/interconnected-government-international-regulatory-cooperation-in-asean/
The research draws on a series of country reports which included case studies, interviews, and an elite survey of key decision-makers and opinion leaders in all ASEAN member states, as well as New Zealand.
The key messages and policy implications can be found in an ERIA Policy Brief https://www.eria.org/publications/under-the-radar-international-regulatory-cooperation-in-asean-and-new-zealand/
The implications specifically for New Zealand are discussed in NZIER Insight 92 Regulators are the new diplomats – the role of IRC in a post-COVID world.
01 September 2020
The dairy industry has led the way with its performance over the lockdown period and as the COVID-19 crisis has continued, NZIER find in an Insight released today. But will the dairy industry continue to be a major driver of the New Zealand economy over the next 10 years?
Read the Insight here.
Re-emergence of coronavirus creates additional uncertainty - NZIER Quarterly Predictions, September 2020
26 August 2020
NZIER forecasts the effects of COVID-19 will persist well into 2023, as the recent re-emergence of COVID-19 in the community adds to the already highly uncertain outlook. The new restrictions have hampered the recovery in activity seen in recent weeks as New Zealand moved down alert levels. Although retail spending had rebounded in the months following the relaxation of lockdown restrictions, the recent increase in spending has yet to make up for the decline experienced during the lockdown.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.
Read the full media release here.