NZIER sees offshore developments weighing on the growth outlook - Quarterly Predictions, September 2019
28 August 2019
Growth is expected to slow over the coming years as offshore volatility weighs on demand, as detailed in the latest NZIER Quarterly Predictions. “We now expect annual GDP growth to average around 2.2 percent over the next five years. With the trade war between the US and China showing little sign of being resolved anytime soon, this is likely to dampen demand for New Zealand exports from 2020.”, said Principal Economist Christina Leung.
An independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook is available exclusively to NZIER’s members in the latest Quarterly Predictions.
Read the media release here.
05 August 2019
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board have lowered their recommendation for the OCR but remained centred on a no-change decision for Wednesday. There was a wide range of views this time, and NZIER Shadow Board members distinguished between their views on what they think the Reserve Bank will do, versus what it should do. Nonetheless, there was a stronger easing bias amongst the NZIER Shadow Board, relative to June.
Link to release.
02 July 2019
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows business confidence fell to its lowest level since March 2009, with a net 31 percent of businesses expecting a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months.
Adding to the negative news was a further decline in firms’ own trading activity, with a net 4 percent of businesses reporting reduced demand in the June quarter. A net 4 percent of businesses also expect demand to fall in the next quarter – the weakest level since June 2009. These measures suggest a softening in annual GDP growth to below 2 percent over the second half of 2019.
Read the media release here.
24 June 2019
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board has adjusted their recommendation in the wake of the Reserve Bank’s OCR cut in May. The NZIER Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank should leave the OCR on hold at the OCR Review on Wednesday. However, there have been mixed views as to whether the OCR should have been cut in the first place. Nonetheless, an easing bias remains amongst the NZIER Shadow Board.
Read the release here.
29 May 2019
Growth is expected to slow over the coming year before recovering from 2020, as detailed in the latest NZIER Quarterly Predictions. “We now expect annual GDP growth to average around 2.6 percent over the next five years. While this is well below the average of 3.4 percent over the previous five years, it still represents a sustained period of growth”, said Principal Economist Christina Leung.
Read the media release here.
Kia māia: Be bold, Improving the wellbeing of children living in poverty, NZIER public discussion paper 2019/1
20 May 2019
Our latest research shows that increasing income is not enough to fix child poverty. Expanding the real choices people have is much harder than just providing resources, but it's what is needed to give all Kiwi kids a fair go.
Our discussion paper can be read here.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994: How a nonbinding policy instrument proved highly powerful - NZIER working paper 2018/1
09 May 2019
Countries that don’t learn from their policy successes and failures are doomed to repeat the failures of the past.
ANU Press published our volume (NZIER working paper 2018/1) in, Successful Public Policy: Lessons from Australia and New Zealand. It is available here.
This chapter and others in the book can help inform New Zealanders, so we can do better than that.
06 May 2019
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board continues to remain of the view that the OCR should not be changed at the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday. However, there has been an increase in easing bias relative to the previous OCR decision. Read the full release here.
04 April 2019
We are pleased to announce that Dr Dianne McCarthy, CRSNZ CNZM has been appointed as Chair of the NZIER board from 1 April 2019.
We also welcome Grant Pryde to the board. Grant has been appointed to fill the vacancy left by Mr Walls and will be available for re-election at NZIER’s AGM in September 2019.
Dr Dianne McCarthy was appointed to the role of Chair after the resignation of Mr Michael Walls, who served as a director of NZIER from 1993-1998 and as Chair from 1998-2019.
“I am honoured to take on this role” said Dianne. “NZIER has a proud tradition as the premier centre of applied economic research in New Zealand, and together with my fellow board members I look forward to enhancing this tradition. I wish to pay tribute to my predecessor, Michael Walls, for his astute stewardship of the board over a long period of time”.
Dr Dianne McCarthy, CRSNZ CSNM
Dianne has extensive experience in a number of senior management and governance roles in the tertiary education, science and health sectors. She holds a BA BSc MSc (Hons) and PhD from the University of Auckland.
The former CEO of the Royal Society of New Zealand, she is now a Director of the Cawthron Institute, a member of the governance boards of the Dodd-Walls Centre for Photonic and Quantum Technologies, the Healthier Lives National Science Challenge, and is Chair of the Ageing Well National Science Challenge. She is a Trustee of the Malaghan Institute of Medical Research and the Hearing Research Foundation (NZ).
She was made an Officer of the New Zealand Order of Merit for her services to Education in 2008, a Companion of the Royal Society of New Zealand for her services to Science in 2015, and a Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit for her services to science, business and women in 2016.
Dianne is a member of NZIER’s Remuneration and Audit Committees.
Grant is the Director of Ichor Leadership Search, a Wellington-based executive search firm that has a portfolio of clients across the public, private and not-for-profit sectors in New Zealand. Well-known for delivering advice that works to enhance organisational success, Grant’s particular expertise is in leading national and international search assignments and completing complex leadership appointments.
With over 30 years’ experience in executive search, Grant has developed long-standing client relationships advising Boards, Chief Executives and senior leaders. His consulting career began with an international search firm, which he became a Director of in 1991. He then joined an Auckland-based firm where he conducted international searches predominantly in the professional services, information technology and government sectors. Commencing his career in human resources and training and development, Grant moved to the information technology industry, where he held several national management positions before transitioning into management consulting.
Grant holds a Bachelor of Education from the University of Canterbury, and a Diploma in Business Studies from Massey University. He is a member of the Institute of Directors.
Grant chairs NZIER’s Remuneration Committee.
For further information please contact: Board Secretary
02 April 2019
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows businesses started 2019 more downbeat about the economy. A net 27 percent of businesses expect a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months – close to levels seen back in the September 2018 quarter.
Read the full media release here.