NZIER sees weaker growth outlook as uncertainty weighs on demand - Quarterly Predictions, December 2019
27 November 2019
Growth is expected to slow further over the coming years as uncertainty here and abroad make businesses and households more cautious about spending, as detailed in the latest NZIER Quarterly Predictions.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.
Read the media release here.
11 November 2019
The range of views amongst the NZIER Policy Shadow Board on the appropriate level of the OCR at the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) release on Wednesday has widened since September. Shadow Board members, on average, still called for the OCR to be kept on hold, but there was an increased skew towards a higher OCR.
Read the release here.
15 October 2019
Family violence is one of the most pressing social problems facing New Zealand. NZIER worked with Elaine Mossman and the Joint Venture Business Unit (for NZ Police and the Ministry of Justice) to evaluate the return on investment in a crisis response to family violence.
The focus was on reviewing the effectiveness of the pilots of an Integrated Service Response in Christchurch and Hamilton. The report demonstrated the power of economists working alongside professional evaluators to review programme effectiveness. The economic analysis showed that the benefits of the Integrated Safety Response unambiguously exceeded the costs. The results supported decision-makers through quantitative evidence that cut through to noisy discourse surrounding the cost.
Read more here. [Link takes you to the Ministry of Justice's website.]
NZIER’s QSBO points to further slowing in activity - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, October 2019
01 October 2019
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows a further drop in business confidence in the September quarter. A net 35 percent of businesses expect a worsening in general economic conditions – still the weakest level since March 2009.
There was also a decline in firms’ own trading activity, which is a better indicator of demand in the New Zealand economy. The net 11 percent of businesses reporting demand fell over the quarter brings this measure to its weakest level since September 2010. The result suggests annual GDP growth will ease below 1 percent later this year.
This publication is only available to NZIER members. The media release can be read here.
23 September 2019
There has been increased divergence in views amongst the NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board on what the OCR should be at the OCR Review this Wednesday. This widening in the range of views follows the Reserve Bank’s surprise decision to cut the OCR by 50 basis points at its August meeting. Although Shadow Board members generally called for keeping the OCR on hold, some saw a higher OCR as appropriate. The views were taken before the release of June quarter GDP.
Read the full release here.
20 September 2019
The roading system in New Zealand is essential and its economic importance is clear. At any time of the day or night you might see different activities associated with construction, tourism, services, manufacturing and agriculture.This takes on new significance as we decarbonise the economy.
Road transport is important not only because the annual resources used dwarf other transport modes, but because it also connects other transport modes. The contribution to the growth of the New Zealand economy of transport is not only vital for moving goods around but it is also a substantial GDP contributor. Total sales of road transport industry activity to the rest of the economy is around $8.3 billion. The share of GDP is roughly 1.5% or $3.5 billion (March year 2016).
Read the discussion paper here.
04 September 2019
Last night we held our AGM.
The NZIER Economics Award for 2019 was presented to Dr John McDermott, pictured with Dr Dianne McCarthy, NZIER's chair.
Read the Award citation here.
Our guest speaker was Dr Alan Bollard.
He gave insightful and balanced analysis going 'Inside the Economic Brain of Donald J Trump'.
Dr Bollard delved into the economic explanation behind President Trump’s tweets. The neural map below illustrates Trump focuses on international economic events, where the President has more power and influence, than on domestic matters.
Note the full talk is not publicly available.
NZIER sees offshore developments weighing on the growth outlook - Quarterly Predictions, September 2019
28 August 2019
Growth is expected to slow over the coming years as offshore volatility weighs on demand, as detailed in the latest NZIER Quarterly Predictions. “We now expect annual GDP growth to average around 2.2 percent over the next five years. With the trade war between the US and China showing little sign of being resolved anytime soon, this is likely to dampen demand for New Zealand exports from 2020.”, said Principal Economist Christina Leung.
An independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook is available exclusively to NZIER’s members in the latest Quarterly Predictions.
Read the media release here.
05 August 2019
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board have lowered their recommendation for the OCR but remained centred on a no-change decision for Wednesday. There was a wide range of views this time, and NZIER Shadow Board members distinguished between their views on what they think the Reserve Bank will do, versus what it should do. Nonetheless, there was a stronger easing bias amongst the NZIER Shadow Board, relative to June.
Link to release.
02 July 2019
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows business confidence fell to its lowest level since March 2009, with a net 31 percent of businesses expecting a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months.
Adding to the negative news was a further decline in firms’ own trading activity, with a net 4 percent of businesses reporting reduced demand in the June quarter. A net 4 percent of businesses also expect demand to fall in the next quarter – the weakest level since June 2009. These measures suggest a softening in annual GDP growth to below 2 percent over the second half of 2019.
Read the media release here.