NZIER’s QSBO shows a strong pick-up in demand and confidence - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, July 2021
06 July 2021
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows a sharp improvement in both business confidence and demand in firms’ own business.
A net 10 percent of businesses expect an improvement in the economic outlook on a seasonally adjusted basis – a turnaround from the net 8 percent of businesses who had expected a deterioration in the previous quarter. Firms’ own trading activity also picked up strongly, with a net 26 percent of businesses reporting increased demand in the June quarter. These results suggest the recovery in the New Zealand economy will remain robust over the coming year.
10 June 2021
COVID-19 has disrupted international supply chains, drastically reduced the global movement of people and caused a dramatic, unprecedented but luckily temporary fall in world trade. Global merchandise trade recorded its largest ever one-period decline in the second quarter of 2020, falling 14·3% compared with the previous period. This event has accentuated the slowdown in international economic integration (so-called peak globalisation) in the decade since the global financial crisis.
A newly released NZIER working paper highlights how New Zealand’s place in the world – including flows in trade, people, capital, and ideas – continues to change.
The working paper can be read here.
26 May 2021
The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) is sponsoring the 2021 New Zealand Schools’ Debating Championship. The national championship comprises a series of debates over the coming weekend (May 28th to May 31st), culminating in a final knock-out round to be held in the Upper House of Parliament from 2pm on May 31st.
Read the media release here.
25 May 2021
While the dip in New Zealand economic activity in the final quarter of 2020 suggested some easing in the momentum of the rebound in the economy, improving household and business confidence should support a continued recovery over the coming years. Businesses are looking to invest and hire, and the improvement in household incomes is supporting retail spending.
NZIER forecasts annual average GDP growth to pick up to around 5 percent by the end of this year, before moderating to just over 3.5 percent by 2025.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.
Read the media release here.
24 May 2021
While Shadow Board members still considered current monetary settings as appropriate for the upcoming May meeting, attention turns to a tightening in monetary policy over the coming year. In the near term, members pointed to some uncertainty over how sustainable the recovery will be particularly in light of continued border restrictions. Hence members saw a cautious approach as justified for the upcoming meeting. Read the full release here.
20 April 2021
NZIER was asked by the Commission to look at the evidence of the effects of migration policy on New Zealand’s frontier firms.
Our first report – Could Do Better – was released by the Commission last December.
Our latest report – Picking Cherries – was released today. Read the report here.
13 April 2021
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows a modest improvement in business confidence in the first quarter of 2021, while demand held steady.
A net 11 percent of businesses expect a worsening in general economic conditions over the coming months, on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is a modest improvement from the 16 percent of businesses which were pessimistic about the economic outlook in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, firms’ own trading activity was unchanged from the previous quarter. This measure suggests annual GDP growth will track around 2 percent in the March 2021 quarter.
12 April 2021
For the upcoming April RBNZ meeting, Shadow Board members are in favour of leaving the monetary policy stance unchanged. Given the recent announcement of measures such as extending the bright-line test to 10 years and the removal of interest deductibility for investment properties, Shadow Board members felt a wait and see approach was appropriate to assess the effects on the New Zealand economy.
The release can be read here.
NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the growth outlook over the longer term - March 2021
15 March 2021
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to growth forecasts later this year. However, this partly reflects a higher starting point, as the recovery in demand after lockdown restrictions were relaxed turned out to be stronger than expected.
Read the release here.
09 March 2021
With borders closed for the foreseeable future New Zealand tourism is facing a loss of substantial revenue from the lack of foreign visitors, who would usually maintain demand for tourism businesses after the end of the peak summer holidays for domestic tourists. But after the COVID-19 set-back, what will recovery look like in a world attempting to curb its emissions of greenhouse gases and global warming?
New Zealand legislation now aims to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, government declared a climate change emergency last year, and the Climate Change Commission (CCC) set up to design a road map for getting there has just issued its first draft report for consultation. While tourism operators may hope to get back to how things were before COVID-19 appeared, is that feasible in the current climate?
An Insight article released today shows that there are big differences in greenhouse gas emissions depending on whether we look at the UN Greenhouse Gas Inventory, or production-based national accounts or consumption-based national accounts prepared by Statistics New Zealand.
Read the Insight here.