27 May 2020
NZIER forecasts that the New Zealand economy will recover unevenly from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. We expect the decline in activity will be concentrated in the June 2020 quarter, largely reflecting the direct impact of containment measures. Despite a forecast bounce-back in activity from the June 2020 quarter low, NZIER expects activity to remain below levels forecast in the absence of the outbreak, as weaker consumer and business confidence weigh on spending.
New Zealand has undergone unprecedented changes since March, reflecting the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. The effects of the physical restrictions on the New Zealand economy have been sharp, widespread and inevitable. Given the relatively short amount of time spent in lockdown reflecting our success in eliminating COVID-19, the New Zealand economy looks increasingly likely to be at the optimistic end of the scenarios that had initially been considered by The Treasury. With New Zealand moving down the alert levels, more businesses are reopening and offering a wider range of goods and services.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.
Read the media release here.
22 May 2020
No regions will escape the economic downturn, but some rural communities will face bigger impacts than others. NZIER looks at how to identify and target support at communities most affected by COVID-19.
Read our Insight here.
11 May 2020
Read the release here.
07 April 2020
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) is being issued in extraordinary times. The result captures responses received up to 20 March 2020 – just prior to the announcement by the Government of the Alert Level 4 lockdown across the country. It thus gives us at least a partial glimpse into how firms think COVID-19 will impact them and the economy.
The QSBO shows a sharp decline in business confidence, with a net 67 percent of businesses expecting a deterioration in general economic conditions.
Read the full media release here.
17 March 2020
Dear members, clients and stakeholders of NZIER
Given the developing nature of the Covid-19 situation, I want to provide you with some information about what NZIER is doing. Our prime objective is to make sure that our employees, members, clients and other stakeholders are safe and well and receiving the support they need.
NZIER remains open for business and we will continue to serve our clients and members and deliver projects on time, but with some restrictions on face-to-face meetings and changes to business practices.
- our offices remain open for now, with all NZIER staff able to work from home seamlessly using our cloud and remote systems.
- we are moving in-person meetings to virtual meetings using Zoom, Teams and Skype.
- the QSBO lockup on 7 April and our quarterly economic briefings in May could become online-only events. More details to follow on this.
- there will be no Shadow Board publication on 25 March
We expect to continue to operate with little disruption, with our staff working from home as needed using our cloud and remote systems that enable our teams to work together remotely.
We will update our response as needed as the situation develops. Thank you for your valued support and please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or concerns about active projects or workstreams.
16 March 2020
Note: Consensus Forecasts were finalised prior to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s emergency OCR cut of 75bp which was announced at 8am this morning.
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts highlights the large degree of uncertainty over the effects of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak on the New Zealand economy. This uncertainty is reflected in the range of forecasts across the key economic measures being greater than usual.
Link to release.
05 March 2020
NZIER report to New Zealand College of Midwives.
NZIER finds that improved well-being and equity for mothers and babies depends on addressing the 3Cs faced by community midwives - complexity, caseloads and conditions.
Read the report here.
NZIER expects coronavirus and drought to put a brief handbrake on the economy - Quarterly Predictions, March 2020
26 February 2020
The combination of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak and drought is expected to deliver a short sharp shock to the New Zealand economy, as detailed in the latest NZIER Quarterly Predictions. “Exporters are expected to bear the brunt of the effects, and we expect activity will be flat in the March quarter. Although we expect the effects to linger over the remainder of 2020, as they lessen over time growth should pick up from the March low”, said Principal Economist Christina Leung.
Read the media release here.
20 February 2020
Using evidence from health and economic literature, health economists Sarah Hogan and Todd Krieble find that New Zealand should do more to prepare for pandemics and assist the Pacific Islands. New Zealand should not rely on travel bans which are likely to be ineffective. Read the Insight here.
10 February 2020
There remains a wide range of views amongst the NZIER Policy Shadow Board on the appropriate level of the OCR at the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) release on Wednesday. Although Shadow Board members acknowledged the positive developments in the New Zealand economy, the recent coronavirus outbreak has introduced further uncertainty over the global growth outlook. Overall, Shadow Board members still called for the OCR to be kept on hold. Read the release here.