• Growth expectations softening - Consensus Forecasts, June 2015

    15 June 2015

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have pared back growth expectations slightly since the March quarter survey. Activity indicators over the past quarter have been mixed, with global dairy prices continuing to fall but household spending remaining strong.

    You can read the full release here.

  • It’s a line call but NZIER’s Shadow Board says leave the OCR at 3.50%

    10 June 2015

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board is divided. There is mounting pressure for a rate cut. But on balance, the Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank leaves the interest rate at 3.50 percent this Thursday.

    You can read the release here.

  • New Zealand economy stays solid amidst global wobbles, says NZIER - Quarterly Predictions, June 2015

    27 May 2015

    The New Zealand economy has recovered at a solid pace since the recession in late 2010. The recovery has been better than most of our peers. The outlook remains positive, although there are brewing risks from slowing growth in Australia and China, an approaching peak in the Canterbury rebuild and a rampant Auckland housing market.

    The media release can be read here.

    Full details are available exclusively to NZIER members.

  • NZIER Shadow Board says keep rates at 3.5% with an easing bias

    29 April 2015

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board says the Reserve Bank should leave the Official Cash Rate at 3.50 percent on Thursday. But the Board’s sentiment is shifting – rate rises are off the table for now and there is a growing sense that the Reserve Bank’s next move should be down. 

    You can read the full release here.

  • Growth moderates to a more sustainable level - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, April 2015

    14 April 2015

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the New Zealand economy heading into 2015 in good shape. While the softening in activity indicators suggests a moderation in growth in the March 2015 quarter, annual growth is still expected to be respectable at just over 3%.

    The media release can be read here.

    Full detail are available to NZIER members only.

  • NZIER's new tool for evaluating regional economic impacts released

    20 March 2015

    Dr Erwin Corong and John Ballingall presented to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) staff on 18 March 2015 to demonstrate NZIER's new tool for regional economic impact analysis.

    This tool is a bottom-up Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy, with 15 regions and 106 industries. Regional economies are linked through inter-regional trade in goods and services, and also flows of labour and capital. The model is based on the TERM model developed by the Centre of Policy Studies in Melbourne. 

    As the Canterbury rebuild illustrative example in the presentation shows, growth in one industry in a regional economy draws resources from other industries and regions. This means that while the Canterbury economy grows strongly as a result of the impetus from the rebuild, and this growth spills over into other regions too, some other regions and industries contract. This clearly makes sense in a world where resources are largely fixed, at least in the short term, but previously these trade-offs have not been easy to quantify. 

    The key feature of our new model is that it explicitly captures positive and negative regional spillovers and resource movements associated with regional initiatives. This allows policy-makers and businesses to identify the important trade-offs and winners and losers from regional growth investments.

    You can view the presentation here.

    For more information, please contact John Ballingall.

  • Growth to hold up over the coming years - Consensus Forecasts, March 2015

    16 March 2015

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows economic growth holding up at solid levels over the coming years. The New Zealand economy performed strongly over 2014, boosted by improving household consumption and investment.

    You can read the full release here.

  • Little to sway NZIER Shadow Board from rates ‘on hold’ call

    11 March 2015

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank leaves the Official Cash Rate at 3.50 percent on Thursday.

    You can read the full release here.

  • NZIER’s Auckland office open and ready for ‘uglies’

    10 March 2015

    Prime Minister, the Right Honourable John Key formally opened the Auckland office of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) on 5 March 2015.

    The Prime Minister spoke about the importance of contestable advice in policy making. He believed New Zealand was on the cusp of something special, and that organisations like NZIER can play a key role in realising that vision.     

    Laurence Kubiak, NZIER’s Chief Executive, said “The opening of NZIER’s Auckland office is an important step in our organisation’s proud 56-year history. Our Auckland clients will now have better access to NZIER’s stable of over 20 expert business economists”.
    “This is crucial at a time when these clients are facing increasingly complex challenges – or ‘uglies’ as we like to call them – when making decisions. We are confident that our brand of independent, impartial and rigorous analysis will help Auckland organisations make better decisions and deliver greater prosperity”, Kubiak noted.

    The full media release can be read here.

  • New Zealand economy calm amidst global turbulence - Quarterly Predictions March 2015

    24 February 2015

    The New Zealand economy is in relative calm, against a backdrop of increasing global uncertainty. Growth will be respectable at around 3% in 2015. But the headline numbers will hide big shifts in the composition of growth, global influences and local policy reactions.  

    An independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook is available exclusively to NZIER’s members in the latest Quarterly Predictions.

    The full media release can be read here.