Business confidence drops, but firms’ own activity remains healthy - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, October 2015
06 October 2015
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows business confidence falling to its lowest level since March 2011. A net 9 percent of businesses now expect deterioration in the New Zealand economy over the coming months.
This drop in confidence is in stark contrast to firms’ own trading activity. A net 12 percent of businesses reported an improvement in their own trading activity over the past quarter. Even more positive was the rebound in businesses’ expected trading activity over the next quarter, with a net 17 percent of businesses expecting an improvement.
The full media release can be read here.
22 September 2015
This summer will be a scorcher. The MetService is forecasting the most severe El Niño in over 20 years. Past El Niño events have hit farmers hard and tipped New Zealand into recession. But farming today is not the farming of yesteryear and we need to examine local conditions one region at a time to understand the likely impacts. Even under a severe event, recession is far from pre-ordained. Key commodity prices could even lift a little.
The full Insight can be read here.
16 September 2015
The month of August 2015 provided a salutary reminder of why equities and other growth assets command a risk premium. Markets fell over 10% and intra-day market volatility rose to levels not seen since the GFC period. The NZ dollar continued its slide.
The corrections in equity and currency markets have moved prices much closer to our estimates of fair value. In the June NZIQ we saw the NZ dollar as being materially over-valued, we now assess it to be around fair-value. We also assessed equities to be moderately expensive in most markets. We now assess global equities to be slightly cheap, with Europe and Emerging Markets offering better value than the US, UK and New Zealand markets.
Read the full media release here.
The New Zealand Investment Quarterly (IQ) provides wholesale investors and investment fiduciaries an independent assessment of the broad investment opportunity set in New Zealand. The assessment can be regarded as truly independent because the NZIER does not earn income from the management of assets or investment transactional services.
Read about NZIQ subscription options here.
14 September 2015
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows a further downward revision in growth expectations amongst forecasters since the June survey. What stands out this round is the wider range of forecasts for growth, inflation and financial market measures, indicating a greater degree of uncertainty over the New Zealand economic outlook.
The full release can be read here.
09 September 2015
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank cuts the interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent this Thursday.
Read the full release here.
03 September 2015
The NZIER Economics Award for 2015 was presented to Dr Alan Bollard at NZIER’s AGM & dinner yesterday evening.
Accepting the award last night from Cebu in the Philippines where he is attending a meeting in his capacity as Executive Director of APEC, Dr Bollard said “It has been my good fortune to have been able to work in a range of economic policy areas over the past couple of decades, and to be working in a country, in institutions and with people who have wanted to ensure that they get the very best from economics and from economic theory to help New Zealand prosper and grow”.
The citation for Dr Bollard can be read here.
Further information on the NZIER Economics Award and past recipients can be found here.
01 September 2015
From next year, the Reserve Bank will let go one chance each year to meet and set interest rates. That means the Reserve Bank could easily fall behind the run rate on the interest rate settings required to manage the economy.There are ways to improve how interest rates are set. Meeting less often is not one of them.
You can read the full Insight here.
26 August 2015
The downturn in the dairy sector has been the key influence in the softening pace of the New Zealand economy. Business and consumer confidence has deteriorated, with the effects most apparent in dairy-intensive regions.
The effects of reduced farm income will reverberate through the economy as farmers rein in spending to ride out the poor seasons. We expect annual average GDP growth to dip to close to 2% by the end of this year, before rebounding over 2016 as the boost from the lower New Zealand dollar filters through to a broad range of exporting sectors.
Quarterly Predictions an independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook, is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.
The full media release can be read here.
22 July 2015
NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank cuts the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3 percent this Thursday.
You can read the full release here.
07 July 2015
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the New Zealand economy losing momentum. The drop in activity indicators in the June 2015 quarter points to annual growth remaining below 3% over the coming year – a marked drop from the 3.5% annual growth we saw at the end of last year.
Full details are only available to NZIER members.
The media release can be read here.