• Further moderation in growth expected - Consensus Forecasts, December 2015

    14 December 2015

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have pared back growth expectations for the upcoming year. The downward revisions largely reflect expectations of weaker growth in investment. 

    Recent  developments  have  been mainly positive,  and  point  to economic activity  picking  up. Consumer  and  business  confidence  are  also  recovering.  Nonetheless,  expectations  for  annual average economic growth remain below 3% out to 2019. Forecasters expect growth to ease to 2.2% in the March 2016 year, before recovering to 2.7% by March 2017.

    The full lrelease can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board counsels the Reserve Bank to hold fire

    09 December 2015

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.75 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

    The full release can be read here.

  • New travel charge on tourists is borderline at best - NZIER Insight 56

    26 November 2015

    The Government wants to make travellers pay for the costs of border control but the border charge is a poor user charge and an inefficient tax: it will dampen services exports and hence economic growth more than other revenue raising options. If we need additional border control it would be far better to fund the system out of general taxation and welcome more visitors to New Zealand.

    Read the Insight here.

  • Growth to pick up from 2016 as economy diversifies, says NZIER - Quarterly Predictions, December 2015

    25 November 2015

    Beyond the slowing from reduced dairy income, other sectors of the New Zealand economy, such as tourism, are picking up. This will see annual economic growth recover over 2016 towards 3%.

    Diversification is happening across products and regions. Although China remains a very important market for our export sector, the recent conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) opens up opportunities to other key markets such as the US, Japan and Canada.

    Quarterly Predictions is an independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook and is only available to NZIER members.

    The full media release can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board says leave the OCR at 2.75%

    28 October 2015

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.75 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

    The full release can be read here.

  • New Zealand well placed to reap the benefits of technological change, says NZIER

    21 October 2015

    The pace of technological change is accelerating and the upcoming wave of automation may impact jobs and societies as much as occurred in the industrial revolution.   

    That’s one finding of a new research paper produced for Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand (CAANZ) by the NZ Institute of Economic Research Inc (NZIER). The paper titled Disruptive Technologies: Risks, Opportunities – Can New Zealand make them most of them?, is available here, and our accompanying NZIER Insight is available  here.

  • Long term impacts of the TPP matter more than short term gains, says NZIER

    06 October 2015

    Today’s announcement that the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) has been concluded is good news for Kiwi firms and households, NZIER said today in its initial assessment of the TPP’s outcomes.

    Read the full Insight  and the media release.

  • Business confidence drops, but firms’ own activity remains healthy - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, October 2015

    06 October 2015

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows business confidence falling to its lowest level since March 2011. A net 9 percent of businesses now expect deterioration in the New Zealand economy over the coming months.

    This drop in confidence is in stark contrast to firms’ own trading activity. A net 12 percent of businesses reported an improvement in their own trading activity over the past quarter. Even more positive was the rebound in businesses’ expected trading activity over the next quarter, with a net 17 percent of businesses expecting an improvement.

    The full media release can be read here.

  • El Niño: don’t scare the cows - NZIER Insight 53

    22 September 2015

    This summer will be a scorcher. The MetService is forecasting the most severe El Niño in over 20 years. Past El Niño events have hit farmers hard and tipped New Zealand into recession. But farming today is not the farming of yesteryear and we need to examine local conditions one region at a time to understand the likely impacts. Even under a severe event, recession is far from pre-ordained. Key commodity prices could even lift a little.

    The full Insight can be read here.

  • The time is ripe to diversify wealth, says NZIER – Investment Quarterly, September 2015

    16 September 2015

    The month of August 2015 provided a salutary reminder of why equities and other growth assets command a risk premium. Markets fell over 10% and intra-day market volatility rose to levels not seen since the GFC period. The NZ dollar continued its slide.

    The corrections in equity and currency markets have moved prices much closer to our estimates of fair value. In the June NZIQ we saw the NZ dollar as being materially over-valued, we now assess it to be around fair-value. We also assessed equities to be moderately expensive in most markets. We now assess global equities to be slightly cheap, with Europe and Emerging Markets offering better value than the US, UK and New Zealand markets.

    Read the full media release here.

    The New Zealand Investment Quarterly (IQ) provides wholesale investors and investment fiduciaries an independent assessment of the broad investment opportunity set in New Zealand. The assessment can be regarded as truly independent because the NZIER does not earn income from the management of assets or investment transactional services.

    Read about NZIQ subscription options here.