• The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant indicates rockier recovery ahead - Quarterly Predictions, December 2021

    30 November 2021

    The recent emergence of the new COVID-19 variant Omicron highlights just how quickly conditions can change. Before this discovery, New Zealand was already grappling with the inevitable community spread of COVID-19 as restrictions are relaxed from December. By the time New Zealand moves to the new traffic light system on Friday, 3 December, Auckland would have spent 107 days in either Alert Level 3 or Alert Level 4 – a much more prolonged period of time under severe restrictions than the lockdown last year.

    Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.

    The media release can be read here.

  • Intense inflation pressures drive calls for higher interest rates

    22 November 2021

    The Shadow Board is overwhelmingly calling for a tightening in monetary policy, primarily through higher interest rates. However, this view was not unanimous, with Shadow Board members in the business community who were more cautious about further tightening at the upcoming meeting. Read the release here.

  • Declining maths scores is a problem for the New Zealand economy

    16 November 2021

    With statistics on COVID-19 infection and vaccination rates reported, interrogated and twisted every day, a basic understanding of maths is more important than ever. But in New Zealand, our school maths scores have been declining for the past twenty years. Over two NZIER Public Good Insights, Olivia Wills and Sarah Hogan explore why maths matters and ways to boost maths learning in school.

    Read the Insights here.

  • The trade implications of Mr Biden for New Zealand - NZIER Insight 97

    09 November 2021

    The United States has structured world trade over the past 70 years in a way that has been positive for New Zealand. Now that the United States has relinquished its lead trading position, how will Mr Biden behave on trade policy? Ironically, given the electoral straight jacket, he is in, he needs to focus on fixing the United States domestic economy. This may lead to slightly positive outcomes on trade since it will become less of a whipping boy for United States economic ills. In this new trading environment, New Zealand needs to keep on keeping on, working away at building the coalitions of like-minded countries that promote the breaking down of barriers to international trade. 

    Read the Insight here.

  • The tale of Goldilocks and the three fears (about the minimum wage) - NZIER Insight 96

    06 October 2021

    There are three main fears about the minimum wage in New Zealand: that the rate is politically motivated, that it will cost jobs, and that it will not solve serious social problems.

    Newly-released NZIER Insight 96, The tale of Goldilocks and the three fears (about the minimum wage) analyses these fears. 

    It concludes that resolving these fears requires recognising that the minimum wage is a Goldilocks policy. Set too low, it will limit the contribution employment can make to wellbeing; set too high, it could cause real economic harm.

    Insight 96 can be read here.

  • NZIER’s QSBO shows knock to confidence despite demand holding up - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, October 2021

    05 October 2021

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows a weakening in business confidence in the September quarter, despite demand in firms’ own business holding up.

    A net 8 percent of businesses expect a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months – a turnaround from the net 9 percent expecting an improvement in the previous quarter. This weakening in sentiment was despite demand remaining solid, with a net 29 percent of businesses reporting an increase in their own trading activity in the September quarter.

    Full results of the survey are available to NZIER members. The media release can be read here.

  • Lockdown divides Shadow Board’s views on tightening

    04 October 2021

    The Shadow Board has become divided over its views on what should happen with monetary policy at the October Monetary Policy Review. This is due to the ongoing lockdown in Auckland to contain the COVID-19 community outbreak and heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook.

    Shadow Board members in the business community highlighted the negative impact of the latest lockdown on businesses, with small to medium businesses hit particularly hard. This led to some Shadow Board members calling for monetary policy to be left unchanged at the upcoming meeting. Read the full release here.

  • NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a mixed outlook as uncertainty over the impact of latest COVID-19 community outbreak looms

    13 September 2021

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the near-term outlook for the  New  Zealand economy but an upward revision for the subsequent year. Read the release here.

  • Economics Award announced for work on women in the workforce

    02 September 2021

    The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research is pleased to announce that Dr Isabelle Sin, Senior Fellow at Motu, is the recipient of the inaugural NZIER Early Career Economics Leader Award for 2021. Read more here.

  • The discovery of COVID-19 community transmission changes the near-term outlook - Quarterly Predictions, September 2021

    31 August 2021

    The discovery of a COVID-19 community outbreak on the 17th of August brought a halt to the robust recovery that had been taking place in New Zealand. With most of New Zealand sent home under Alert Level 4, economic activity has again slowed sharply.

    Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members. Read the media release here.