NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the growth outlook over the longer term - March 2021
15 March 2021
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to growth forecasts later this year. However, this partly reflects a higher starting point, as the recovery in demand after lockdown restrictions were relaxed turned out to be stronger than expected.
Read the release here.
09 March 2021
With borders closed for the foreseeable future New Zealand tourism is facing a loss of substantial revenue from the lack of foreign visitors, who would usually maintain demand for tourism businesses after the end of the peak summer holidays for domestic tourists. But after the COVID-19 set-back, what will recovery look like in a world attempting to curb its emissions of greenhouse gases and global warming?
New Zealand legislation now aims to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, government declared a climate change emergency last year, and the Climate Change Commission (CCC) set up to design a road map for getting there has just issued its first draft report for consultation. While tourism operators may hope to get back to how things were before COVID-19 appeared, is that feasible in the current climate?
An Insight article released today shows that there are big differences in greenhouse gas emissions depending on whether we look at the UN Greenhouse Gas Inventory, or production-based national accounts or consumption-based national accounts prepared by Statistics New Zealand.
Read the Insight here.
NZ’s V-shaped recovery intact despite Valentine’s Day community case surprise - NZIER quarterly Predictions, March 2021
23 February 2021
The announcement of new COVID-19 community cases on Valentine’s Day highlighted how quickly things can change for the New Zealand economy. The swift move of Auckland into Alert Level 3 was an unwelcome development for many services industry firms which had started to get activity back on track. Prior to this, activity in New Zealand was largely returning to normal, barring the effects of continued border restrictions which are having a severe negative impact on tourism-related industries.
Principal Economist Christina Leung says “whilst disruptive, the brevity of Alert Level 3 for Auckland and Alert Level 2 for the rest of the country means that the V-shaped recovery for New Zealand should remain. Construction demand is growing strongly after weakness over the first half of 2020, and we expect it will continue to lead the recovery over the coming years”.
The pipeline of construction is growing in response to the significant amount of stimulus injected into the economy by the Government and the Reserve Bank. Increased Government spending and lower interest rates have also supported a recovery in consumer confidence, with retail spending picking up as New Zealand moved down the alert levels.
NZIER forecasts annual average GDP growth to pick up to over 6 percent by the end of this year, before moderating to average around 3 percent in the subsequent years.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.
The media release can be read here.
22 February 2021
In light of recent developments, we have once again revised the format of the views we are seeking from our Shadow Board on what the Reserve Bank should do with monetary policy. Given the Reserve Bank’s growing arsenal of monetary policy tools which includes the Official Cash Rate, quantitative easing, and Funding for Lending Programme, we decided to simply ask our Shadow Board on what stance the Reserve Bank should take 1) at the upcoming meeting, and 2) over the coming 12 months. Read the full release here.
NZIER’s QSBO shows increased construction demand driving improved sentiment - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, January 2021
19 January 2021
This NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) showed a further improvement in business confidence in the final quarter of 2020. A smaller proportion of businesses expect a deterioration in general economic conditions, and firms also reported trading in their own business held up in the December 2020 quarter. On a seasonally adjusted basis, a net 16 percent of firms expect a worsening in general economic conditions, while only a net 1 percent reported reduced demand.
The media release is avilable here.
QSBO is only available to NZIER members.
14 December 2020
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a substantial upward revision to growth forecasts over the coming year. The consensus is clearly for a ‘V’ shaped economy recovery in New Zealand.
Read the release here.
01 December 2020
Today the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Incorporated (NZIER) has released its 2020 Summer Reading List for the Prime Minister.
“NZIER supports New Zealanders reading, taking time to think long thoughts, and discussing them. Summer is good for that” said NZIER’s Chief Executive Laurence Kubiak.
The list was prepared as part of the NZIER Public Good programme, which undertakes economic research and thinking aimed at promoting a better understanding of New Zealand’s important economic challenges.
Read more here.
Unprecedented stimulus supports a V-shaped recovery for the New Zealand economy - NZIER Quarterly Predictions, December 2020
24 November 2020
Recent developments point to a strong rebound in economic activity, as the New Zealand economy responds to the unprecedented amount of stimulus measures implemented by the Government and Reserve Bank. NZIER forecasts annual average GDP growth to rise to around 5 percent by early 2022, before moderating to average around 3 percent in the subsequent years.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members. Read the media release here.
24 November 2020
A newly released report from the Helen Clark Foundation and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research calls for a minimum wage boost to improve inclusion and incentivise investment in capital and skills, leading to greater productivity. Read the report here.
09 November 2020
We are continuing to seek our Shadow Board members’ views on whether the Official Cash Rate (OCR) should be negative and if the Reserve Bank should expand its quantitative easing (QE). Board members once again saw a reduced need for a negative OCR and further QE over the coming year. Read the full release here.