News

  • NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a wide range of forecasts - Consensus Forecasts, September 2020

    14 September 2020

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts continues to show a wide range of forecasts for the economy, reflecting a large degree of uncertainty over the growth outlook. The announcement on 11 August of new COVID-19 cases in the community, and the subsequent return of Auckland to Alert Level 3 and the rest of New Zealand to Alert Level 2, has added to the uncertainty over how the economic recovery will pan out over the coming years. The most optimistic forecast for the New Zealand economy is a decline in GDP of 5 percent on average for the year to March 2021, while the most pessimistic is a decline of 11.8 percent.

    Read the release here.

  • NZIER partners with ERIA in an IRC study of ASEAN countries as well as New Zealand

    10 September 2020

    NZIER has partnered with ERIA, in a comparative study of international regulatory cooperation in all ASEAN countries as well as New Zealand. The finding of the research can be found here: https://www.eria.org/publications/interconnected-government-international-regulatory-cooperation-in-asean/ 

    The research draws on a series of country reports which included case studies, interviews, and an elite survey of key decision-makers and opinion leaders in all ASEAN member states, as well as New Zealand.

    The key messages and policy implications can be found in an ERIA Policy Brief https://www.eria.org/publications/under-the-radar-international-regulatory-cooperation-in-asean-and-new-zealand/ 

    The implications specifically for New Zealand are discussed in NZIER Insight 92 Regulators are the new diplomats – the role of IRC in a post-COVID world.

  • Is dairy our biggest achievement or yesterday’s news? NZIER Insight 91

    01 September 2020

    The dairy industry has led the way with its performance over the lockdown period and as the COVID-19 crisis has continued, NZIER find in an Insight released today. But will the dairy industry continue to be a major driver of the New Zealand economy over the next 10 years?  

    Read the Insight here.

  • Re-emergence of coronavirus creates additional uncertainty - NZIER Quarterly Predictions, September 2020

    26 August 2020

    NZIER forecasts the effects of COVID-19 will persist well into 2023, as the recent re-emergence of COVID-19 in the community adds to the already highly uncertain outlook. The new restrictions have hampered the recovery in activity seen in recent weeks as New Zealand moved down alert levels. Although retail spending had rebounded in the months following the relaxation of lockdown restrictions, the recent increase in spending has yet to make up for the decline experienced during the lockdown.

    Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.

    Read the full media release here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board considers negative OCR unnecessary

    10 August 2020

    We are continuing to seek our Shadow Board members’ views on whether the Official Cash Rate (OCR) should be negative and if the Reserve Bank should expand its quantitative easing (QE).
    Fewer Board members this quarter consider further monetary policy stimulus is appropriate, particularly when it comes to introducing a negative OCR. While there was support for an expansion of the Reserve Bank’s Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) programme over the coming year, this stimulus was considered more appropriate beyond the upcoming meeting.

    Read the full release here.

  • Land-based industries see New Zealand through tough COVID times - NZIER Insight 90

    21 July 2020

    Land-based industries (livestock, forestry and horticulture) have performed well over the lockdown period and as the Covid-19 crisis has continued overseas, NZIER find in an Insight released today.

    Read the Insight here.

  • NZIER’s QSBO shows sharp fall in activity with businesses still downbeat - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, July 2020

    07 July 2020

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) surveyed firms over the main period of the COVID-19 lockdown.

    The results show New Zealand economic activity dropped sharply in the June quarter. The net 37 percent of businesses reporting a decline in own trading activity brings this measure to the lowest level since March 2009. This is not surprising, given the tight trading restrictions under Alert Level 4.

    However, a net 25 percent of businesses also expect weaker demand in the next quarter. And although there was a slight improvement in headline business confidence, businesses remain pessimistic about general economic conditions over the coming months. Business confidence tends to soften heading into a general election, with businesses holding off on major spending decisions given uncertainty over the outcome. This quarter, the pre-election uncertainty is compounded by uncertainty over how the COVID-19 outbreak will play out.

    Read the media release here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board continues to favour further QE over a negative OCR

    22 June 2020

    There remains a wide range of views amongst the Shadow Board on whether more monetary policy stimulus is required, and in what form. Overall, the consensus amongst the Shadow Board is that more stimulus would be required over the next twelve months, with the majority favouring an expansion of the Reserve Bank’s quantitative easing programme.

    Read the release here.

  • NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows growth outlook highly uncertain - Consensus Forecasts, June 2020

    15 June 2020

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts showed an even greater degree of uncertainty over the growth outlook ahead. With New Zealand having eliminated the number of active cases of COVID-19 and moving to Alert Level 1 on 8 June, focus now turns to keeping imported cases at bay on the long road to recovery for the economy. The large range in forecasts across the key economic measures highlights the uncertainty in how this recovery will pan out.

    Consensus Forecasts are avilable here.

  • Tourism beyond Covid-19 – is the future sustainable, local and green?

    09 June 2020

    The post-Covid Budget delivered some big numbers in offering support to help the economy recover from lockdown, but its effect still depends on how industry responds to government funded support. Much of the assistance seems aimed at restoring activity to its former levels, rather than pivoting away from activities that, even before Covid-19 appeared, were beginning to show signs of unsustainability.

    One such activity was tourism, which was raising concerns in some places about excessive use, congestion and environmental degradation. With borders closed for the foreseeable future New Zealand tourism is facing a loss of substantial business. But just how large is the hole in the industry’s fortunes, what can it be plugged with in the short term, and how can the industry reposition itself over the long term for a more sustainable future?

    Read the Insight here.