NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a mixed outlook as uncertainty over the impact of latest COVID-19 community outbreak looms
13 September 2021
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the near-term outlook for the New Zealand economy but an upward revision for the subsequent year. Read the release here.
02 September 2021
The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research is pleased to announce that Dr Isabelle Sin, Senior Fellow at Motu, is the recipient of the inaugural NZIER Early Career Economics Leader Award for 2021. Read more here.
The discovery of COVID-19 community transmission changes the near-term outlook - Quarterly Predictions, September 2021
31 August 2021
The discovery of a COVID-19 community outbreak on the 17th of August brought a halt to the robust recovery that had been taking place in New Zealand. With most of New Zealand sent home under Alert Level 4, economic activity has again slowed sharply.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members. Read the media release here.
20 August 2021
NZIER is delighted to announce that it has appointed a new Chief Executive for the Institute, Jason Shoebridge. Jason, who officially starts on Monday 6 September, will replace long-serving CE Laurence Kubiak, who is leaving to pursue his own governance and investment interests. Read more here.
16 August 2021
The Shadow Board overwhelmingly calls for a tightening in monetary policy at the August Monetary Policy Statement, with many noting an OCR increase would be appropriate. That said, there remained a wide range of views amongst the Shadow Board. Read more here.
21 July 2021
What is NZ’s place in the world? What is the extent of globalisation regarding trade, people, capital, and culture? How has COVID-19 impacted NZ’s economy?
Derek Gill one of our Principal Economists breaks down these questions in last week's Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand sharing knowledge session. During this session, Derek discusses how NZ’s economy has evolved. Where it used to be and how it will progress in the future. View the webinar here.
The Public Discussion Paper can be read here.
12 July 2021
There are growing calls amongst Shadow Board members for the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy given the pick-up in inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy. Many on the Shadow Board now see a tightening in monetary policy at the upcoming July meeting as appropriate. Beyond that, an overwhelming majority thinks monetary policy should be tightened within the coming year.
Read the full release here.
NZIER’s QSBO shows a strong pick-up in demand and confidence - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, July 2021
06 July 2021
The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows a sharp improvement in both business confidence and demand in firms’ own business.
A net 10 percent of businesses expect an improvement in the economic outlook on a seasonally adjusted basis – a turnaround from the net 8 percent of businesses who had expected a deterioration in the previous quarter. Firms’ own trading activity also picked up strongly, with a net 26 percent of businesses reporting increased demand in the June quarter. These results suggest the recovery in the New Zealand economy will remain robust over the coming year.
10 June 2021
COVID-19 has disrupted international supply chains, drastically reduced the global movement of people and caused a dramatic, unprecedented but luckily temporary fall in world trade. Global merchandise trade recorded its largest ever one-period decline in the second quarter of 2020, falling 14·3% compared with the previous period. This event has accentuated the slowdown in international economic integration (so-called peak globalisation) in the decade since the global financial crisis.
A newly released NZIER working paper highlights how New Zealand’s place in the world – including flows in trade, people, capital, and ideas – continues to change.
The working paper can be read here.
26 May 2021
The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) is sponsoring the 2021 New Zealand Schools’ Debating Championship. The national championship comprises a series of debates over the coming weekend (May 28th to May 31st), culminating in a final knock-out round to be held in the Upper House of Parliament from 2pm on May 31st.
Read the media release here.