john.stephenson

John specialises in advice which gives decision makers confidence about the expected and unanticipated effects of their decisions. He is especially interested in tailoring data driven economic advice to integrate wider political, environmental, or social risks. He has extremely broad experience and has advised clients on issues ranging from economic impact assessment to negotiating strategies.

John prides himself in using sophisticated analytical tools to uncover and communicate insights often overlooked or misinterpreted by others.

John joined NZIER in 2011 from the OECD in Paris where he was Principal Advisor to the ministerial Round Table on Sustainable Development and one of the authors of the OECD’s Green Growth Strategy. He has worked for NZIER in the past and also for the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

John has developed models for assessing price trends and risks across a range of energy markets and commodities. A client sought advice on future trends in energy supply and the risks to its business. John’s analysis of price and supply risks across a range of energy options helped the firm to take an integrated view of its energy supply portfolio.

Cost-effective environmental policy almost always runs into concern about undue impacts on firm competitiveness. It is essential that these concerns are addressed in a constructive manner. This includes a sophisticated understanding of the commercial environment in which firms operate and the decisions that they make. John employed a series of models of value at risk to broaden policy makers understanding of the range of risks and perverse results from different policy solutions to the environmental policy competitiveness problem.

John was engaged to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed vehicle emissions standards. His analysis, using a systems dynamics model of the vehicle fleet showed that policy would almost certainly have the opposite effect than was intended because of the way the policy was targeted. Based on this analysis he proposed alternative regulatory solutions for achieving the government’s objectives.

A prominent New Zealand firm sought advice on how to address workers’ concerns around increases in the cost of living. John participated as an independent advisor during the negotiation and mediation of wage contracts. His advice on the construction and meaning of widely quoted measures of inflation was useful in ensuring that all parties were on the same page.

For several years before joining the OECD John was an external advisor to the Ministry of Transport, providing advice on revenue forecasts. This advice included assessment of the macroeconomic environment, upside and downside risks to revenue forecasts, and maintenance of a suite of forecasting models.