chris.schilling

Chris joined NZIER in 2007. Chris is an experienced economic modeller who uses quantitative tools (CGE modelling, linear programming, multi-agent systems, micro-simulation and systems dynamics) to add certainty to clients’ decisions.

He helped develop NZIER’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy, and has applied the model to a wide range of issues and sectors.

Chris uses micro-simulation techniques to help policy makers understand the economic costs and benefits of health interventions.

Deloitte led a consortium of stakeholders from the red meat sector in developing initiatives for moving the industry forward over the next 10 years. NZIER were employed to evaluate how improvements in the red meat sector would flow through to the rest of the economy. Chris used NZIER’s dynamic CGE model of the New Zealand economy, MONASH-NZ, to compute the GDP, consumption and employment results, showing, for example, how efforts to increase red meat prices in overseas markets had positive flow-on impacts to the rest of New Zealand through the terms-of-trade.

This modelling highlighted the wider economic contribution of growth within the red meat sector to the wider economy.

We developed a microsimulation model of the New Zealand population, stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and income. Using evidence from the international literature, we then incorporated smoking impacts into the model, to estimate how smoking cessation programs helped reduce health care costs and improve labour productivity over the life course.

This modelling allows policy analysts to better quantify the costs and benefits of early-life health interventions.

LECG led a CBA analysis of the Auckland Commonwealth Games bid. They asked NZIER to quantify the benefits to both the Auckland region and the nation of the Games. Chris employed NZIER’s dynamic CGE model of the New Zealand economy, MONASH-NZ, and modelled both the investment phase of the Games (construction of infrastructure before the Games commenced), and the Games themselves (increased tourism and activities). He also considered various funding arrangements for the costs of the Games (increased taxation versus borrowing).

This modelling research showed that the Auckland region was a net winner from the Games, but that the costs to the rest of the country were negative over the long run.

Aquaculture NZ has a number of growth strategy plans to take the sector forward over the next 10 years. They wanted to know how specific aquaculture initiatives would benefit the wider ‘NZ-Inc’. We employed our dynamic model of the New Zealand economy, MONASH-NZ, and tailored the model specifically for the aquaculture sector by splitting out salmon, oysters and kingfish commodities, and farming versus processing industries. This let us determine the impact of, for example, gains in salmon farming productivity, on the wider economy.

This study highlighted the impact of sector specific gains on the wider economy.