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In Tracking the Economy, NZIER's weekly column for the National Business Review.

In Tracking the Economy, NZIER's weekly column for the National Business Review.

Ahead of the RBNZ Thursday 26 April statement, the NZIER Shadow Board recommends interest rates are kept on hold. Some participants saw room to cut, rates but the Board placed only a small chance (7%) on raising rates being a good move.

The Canterbury earthquakes have disrupted lives and the economy. This Insight brings together key economic indicators to provide a second snapshot of the economic disruption.   We find encouraging signs of stabilisation.

In Tracking the Economy, NZIER's weekly column for the National Business Review.

In Tracking the Economy, NZIER's weekly column for the National Business Review.

Proust’s À la recherche du temps perdu (In search of lost time) inspired the Proust index in The Economist newspaper of 25 February 2012. The Economist looked across a number of economic measures to see how far back countries have slipped since the global economic crisis. We replicated the Proust index for New Zealand. The recession has cost us dear. In economic terms, New Zealand is now back in 2005.

Forecast - New Zealand trends in property and construction. Prepared by NZIER exclusively for Rider Levett Bucknall.

In Tracking the Economy, NZIER's weekly column for the National Business Review.

An occasional column for the Dominion Post.

New Zealand’s current trade negotiations present new opportunities for economic growth. Unlike the trade deals of the past, the potential benefits will be more subtle, but no less significant for long term prosperity.  NZIER’s Chief Executive Jean-Pierre de Raad explains that because these benefits are less visible it is all the more important to make a hard-nosed economic assessment to inform and provide balance to public debate.

In Tracking the Economy, NZIER's weekly column for the National Business Review.

An occasional column for the Dominion Post newspaper.

This year will be extremely tough year for the public service.  Public sector and welfare reforms were going to be demanding enough. Now, filling a bigger than anticipated fiscal hole will provide a far tougher challenge.
It now seems very unlikely that the government is going to get its books back to surplus by 2015, despite keeping tight reins on spending.