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NZIER conducted the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling for this latest Treasury Working Paper, 'The economy-wide impacts of industry policy'. This work was part-funded from our Public Good research fund and used two different CGE models - the Orani-G model of the NZ economy and the GTAP model of the global economy.

The economic recovery continues, but it will be a little more protracted than previously thought, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Economic growth will average 2.6% over the next three years. The Canterbury rebuild will be a key driver of activity, and households and exports will contribute modestly.

A report for Chatham Rock Phosphate.

NZIER was commissioned by Chatham Rock Phosphate to study the economic impacts of its project to develop a seabed phosphate resource on the Chatham Rise.

A report for BusinessNZ.

NZIER and the Centre for International Economics outline the costs and benefits of mutual recognition of imputation and franking credits, to address the problem of double taxation of dividends in the trans-Tasman market.

The NZIER Shadow Board prefers holding the Official Cash Rate at 2.50 percent on July 26. Low inflation, flat business conditions and deteriorating commodity prices show a weak recovery.  That means inflation is not likely to be above the top of the band in the near term.

Consumers, supermarkets and distributors in Germany and the United Kingdom have been demanding reduced chemical use on fruit. The innovative growing programme ‘Apple Futures’ brought scientists and growers together to figure out how to reduce sprays and residues while producing export-quality fruit. Analysis from NZIER found that the research programme preserved between $25m and $35m per year of industry net income from 2008 to 2011, at a research cost of $3.2m. In just four years, the apple industry earned up to an extra $113m by reducing chemical residues to one-tenth of the maximum set by the European Union.

The NZIER Shadow Board favours holding the Official Cash Rate at 2.50 percent on June 14. But compared to April, Board participants are now putting more weight on a rate cut as the best strategy, reflecting gloomier economic conditions. 

Breaking an addiction is difficult: only about 3% of smokers who go cold turkey manage to successfully quit. New research by behavioural economists shows that getting people to make a financial bet on their success could lift those rates by over half again. Economists at NZIER think it's an option that should be considered as the government aims to achieve a smoke-free nation by 2025.  

The Canterbury earthquakes have disrupted lives and the economy. This Insight brings together key economic indicators to provide a second snapshot of the economic disruption.   We find encouraging signs of stabilisation.

Proust’s À la recherche du temps perdu (In search of lost time) inspired the Proust index in The Economist newspaper of 25 February 2012. The Economist looked across a number of economic measures to see how far back countries have slipped since the global economic crisis. We replicated the Proust index for New Zealand. The recession has cost us dear. In economic terms, New Zealand is now back in 2005.

New Zealand struggles to grow its economy partially due to its small size and remote location. There is little that can be done to change location, but the size can be increased over time. It is feasible to adopt a population policy with the aim of the population reaching 15 million in the next 50 years – an annual growth rate of 2.5% per annum. This would bring the size and density of the population to levels closer to more prosperous European countries. Fifteen million – two and a half times current projections – is a good target, too, as it allows for several large cities, fostering competition within New Zealand.