Aged residential care service review

NZIER modelled the facilities and labour supply requirements for aged residential care between 2010 and 2026. Over the next few years the growth in the number of elderly people with higher and more complex needs will outstrip the effect of a long term decline in the per capita use of aged residential care. This will require expansion in facilities and workforce.

This work was part of a wider review project for the DHBs and Aged Care Association. The main finding was that the ageing of the population dominates: even with currently strong assumptions about falling utilisation rates. Provided that prices could adjust over the timeframe ahead, supply of facilities and labour would generally keep up with demand. An iterative model allowed both demand and supply to respond with and to prices. Given the age of the current stock of facilities, the combination of adding to the stock and replacing old stock implies investment the equivalent of 100% of current stock.

You can read the full report on the New Zealand Aged Care Association website. Link to report.