• Recent projects (prior to joining NZIER)

    By Prince Siddharth

    A multilateral approach to modelling the New Zealand dollar

    Exchange rates between any two bilateral countries are forecasted using models involving only the two bilateral countries. Prince developed a multilateral approach to exchange rate determination. He modelled the New Zealand dollar by introducing the USD and Euro into existing bilateral exchange rate models. The global significance of these two currencies means that changes to these two currencies impact currencies worldwide. This approach gave better exchange rate forecasts than existing bilateral models.

    Investigating the odds of loan acceptance during and after the GFC

    By looking at the data for a private lending firm in the US, Prince investigated the factors influencing loan application success for US residents during and post-GFC. Using logistic regressions, employment years and debt-to-income ratios were determined as the two key factors in determining loan application success during both time periods.

  • Horticulture seasonal labour demand and supply forecasts

    By Mark Dean and Dion Gamperle

    NZIER were required to forecast potential labour market shortages during the busy seasonal harvest periods. The project required a range of skills from dynamic labour market modelling, survey design, data collection and econometric estimation of wage elasticities.

    This was a very detailed, technical project which culminated in an accessible report that was very well received by our clients.

  • Published material

    By Eilya Torshizian

    • Torshizian, Eilya. 2016. A Positive Expected Future Rent or A Negative Supply Effect? A Study of Auckland's MUL Expansion. Presented to NZ Association of Economists conference, Auckland, July.
      This study uses robust spatial econometric methods to understand the causal impact of the council’s Metropolitan Urban Limit policy on the prices of properties located at different distances from the expanded area.
    • Torshizian, Eilya. 2016. The impact of Future Urban Zone announcements on Prices. Presented to NZ Association of Economists conference, Auckland, July.
      Using robust economic modelling methods, the study assesses the significance if the impact of the FUZ announcements on the prices. The resultswere used for advising the ELT members.
    • Torshizian, Eilya. 2016. Affordability Decompositions for Auckland. Presented to NZ Association of Economists conference, Auckland, July.
      Following the ‘5 by 2030’ affordability target, this study highlights the need for further investigation and undertakes a very detailed analysis of affordability issue by accounting for a wide range of factors. Accordingly, we realised that aiming at the median affordability for Auckland is misleading.
    • Torshizian, Eilya. 2016. Towards a Better Rating Method. mimeo.
      The study investigates the precision and the cost-effectiveness of Auckland Council’s rating valuations. The results and the suggestions are presented to the senior leadership level of the organisation.
    • Torshizian, Eilya. 2015. Are We Limiting Regional Development by Requiring Planning Permissions?, Presented to North American Regional Science Council conference, Portland, Oregon, USA, November.
      This study investigates the permissibility of the council’s activity statuses and its impact on regional development. The results of the study presented to ELT and got a lot of attention, especially amongst the IHP.
    • Torshizian, Eilya & Arthur Grimes. 2014. Negative Envy or Positive Amenity Effects? A Neighbourhood Study of Aucklanders’ Residential Satisfaction, Regional Studies Association (RSA) Winter Conference 2014, London.
      This is a study of the impact of locating next to a rich area on residential satisfaction of the residents of the relatively poor area. The results, which have been frequently used in different pieces of advice (provided to different stakeholders), are very useful for the policy in order to provide enduring neighbourhoods in Auckland.
      Torshizian, Eilya & Arthur Grimes. 2014. Residential Satisfaction, Crowding and Density: Evidence over Different Geographic Scales in Auckland, Presented to NZ Association of Economists conference, Auckland, July.
      This is a causal study of the impact of intensification on Aucklander’s satisfaction with their residential environment. The study provides the most relevant definition for neighbourhood boundaries for Aucklanders. Since intensification is one of the main instruments of the council, the results of this paper are very useful for the council’s planning regulations.
    • Torshizian, Eilya & Arthur Grimes. 2013. Is residential satisfaction a matter of perceptions?, Presented to Resilient Urban Futures, The university of Otago.
      This study comparesthe information content of subjective versus objective measures of household crowding when estimating people’s evaluation of satisfaction with their residential environment.
    • Torshizian, Eilya. 2011. The effects of Economy, Values and Health on Happiness in Iran: the case of the Kish Island, MPRA Working Paper No. 30085.
  • Recent work prior to joining NZIER

    By Gail Kelly

    Social policy

    Gail has been involved in a variety of outputs that were focused on bringing evidence to bear on some of New Zealand's major social challenges. These included overseeing the production of evidence briefs on topics such as children of gangs, children of prisoners, family resilience, non-health costs of obesity and family violence. The purpose of the briefs was to bring together what is known and unknown about these key social policy areas to inform interventions.

    Tax system

    In her work with Inland Revenue, Gail oversaw the design and production of research and evaluation to better understand compliance behaviour. Projects included small business decision-making in relation to tax debt, attitudes towards the 'hidden economy', and impact of information sharing across government.    

    Systems approaches

    Gail has worked in cross-discipline teams to apply systems thinking approaches to a range of different areas including family violence, regional development, sustainability, and agricultural land use change.

  • Opinion article for the NZ Herald

    By Todd Krieble

    Todd's opinion article can be read here.

  • Recent work (prior to joining NZIER)

    By Dion Gamperle

    Dion has worked on a number of data visualisation projects at Statistics New Zealand. He has helped create infographics on Auckland and on wool. He recently created a regional unemployment map for the labour market information release.

    Selected examples of data visualisation projects Dion has worked on include:

    Auckland Infographic

    Wool infographic

    Unemployment map

  • Recent work (prior to joining NZIER)

    Māori Land Service Programme (Oct 2014 to May 2015)
    Shane was the Director of a cross-agency programme set up to (1) transfer services out of the Māori Land Court (MLC), and (2) establish an integrated front door to services for Māori land owners. His principal role in this engagement was to establish a PMO and stabilise and re-define the programme, which began in 2013. His team then completed an assessment of services delivered by the MLC and developed a target operating model and design brief for a business case due later this year.

    Shared Services Reform (Jul 2013 to Mar 2014)
    Shane’s principal role in this engagement was to lead machinery of government on, and then work with subject matter experts to develop, a strategy to transform transactional administrative and support services for the Public and Non-Public service. The strategy proposed a two-part reform to deliver significant and sustainable financial and non-financial benefits and directly support the Government’s key goals.

    Public Trust Transformation (May 2013 to Jun 2013)
    Working across the business, Shane designed a new service that enabled the Trust to better leverage government funding and significantly reduce closure time for estates. In piloting, this new service reduced the average closure time for estates from approx. 100 to less than 30 days.

    Inland Revenue Business Transformation (Sep 2012 to Mar 2013)
    Shane was the Process Lead for the Re-engineer Deduct at Source Initiative. Working across the business, his team developed, for incorporation into the IRD business case, a high-level service design to transform the way tax, information, and other obligations are collected at source from individual non-business taxpayers.

  • Recent work (prior to joining NZIER)

    Ministry for Primary Industries: At MPI Geoff was involved in preparing the Ministry for the scheduled review by the Commerce Commission of the state of competition in the dairy industry. This included identifying the potential outcomes of the review, and any changes that might be needed to the Dairy Industry Restructuring Act (DIRA).

    Other projects for MPI included developing a compensation model in the event of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) incursion; and assessing the industry good of “Cow BW”, the New Zealand dairy herd merit index.   

    Banking: Geoff has advised a major South African bank (FNB) on a Treasury review of interchange rates, and represented FNB at the Competition Commission Inquiry into banking.

    Ministry of Building and Housing: At Building and Housing, Geoff advised the Department on the leaky homes problem, developed policy options around the strengthening of earthquake-prone buildings, and advised on social housing policy.

    Telecommunications: At law firm Norton Rose Fulbright, Geoff represented South African mobile operator CellC on mobile termination rates (MTRs) and helped it secure asymmetrical MTRs as the smallest operator in the market.

  • Recent work (prior to joining NZIER)

    By Daniel Pambudi

    Assessed the economic impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation among land-using sectors of the global economy
    Different scenarios were simulated of global emission taxes and forestry sequestration using a global CGE model. Also incorporated in the model were agricultural emission abatement technologies in crops, beef and dairy milk, sheep, poultry and pig sectors.

    Tourism contribution
    Daniel estimated the tourism contribution to the Australian State/Territory economy which was published as State/Territory Tourism Satellite Account (TSA).

    Economic impact of terrorism on Bali
    The economic impact of terrorism on Bali was estimated using an Indonesian multi-regional CGE model.

  • Economic modelling of the Waimea community dam

    By Erwin Corong

    The Nelson Regional Economic Development Agency asked us to review and update economic assessments of the Waimea Community Dam, proposed for the Lee Valley south of Richmond. The dam would provide water storage of about 13 million cubic metres, sufficient to meet unrestricted demand and enhanced environmental minimum flows in drought conditions in the Waimea River. Along with cost benefit analysis (CBA), we used our TERM-NZ (bottom up regional) CGE model of the New Zealand economy to estimate the potential economic costs of non-augmentation and the likely long term economic benefits of dam installation and expansion of irrigated areas in the Waimea plains. Report available here.