New Zealand economy solid enough to overcome challenges, says NZIER - Quarterly Predictions, December 2016

30 November 2016

Recent events have introduced more than the usual uncertainty into the economic outlook. The earthquakes, centred in Kaikoura and Seddon but reverberating throughout the country (particularly Wellington), have disrupted business activity and caused substantial damage to infrastructure and buildings. We expect the effects will be largely isolated to the regions which bore the brunt of the earthquakes.  

Offshore, the shock election of Trump as President of the United States ups the ante on global relations. There is much uncertainty over which of the many policies he flagged prior to the election he will follow through on, but markets for now have taken his surprise win in their stride.

The New Zealand economy is in good shape, which should provide a buffer against these recent shocks. Besides tourism, construction activity continues to ramp up as housing supply increases in response to strong demand. The continued surge in net migration will underpin housing demand over the next few years. We expect annual GDP growth to average over 3% over the next five years.

Quarterly Predictions is an independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook and is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.

The full media release can be read here.

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