News

  • El Niño: don’t scare the cows - NZIER Insight 53

    22 September 2015

    This summer will be a scorcher. The MetService is forecasting the most severe El Niño in over 20 years. Past El Niño events have hit farmers hard and tipped New Zealand into recession. But farming today is not the farming of yesteryear and we need to examine local conditions one region at a time to understand the likely impacts. Even under a severe event, recession is far from pre-ordained. Key commodity prices could even lift a little.

    The full Insight can be read here.

  • The time is ripe to diversify wealth, says NZIER – Investment Quarterly, September 2015

    16 September 2015

    The month of August 2015 provided a salutary reminder of why equities and other growth assets command a risk premium. Markets fell over 10% and intra-day market volatility rose to levels not seen since the GFC period. The NZ dollar continued its slide.

    The corrections in equity and currency markets have moved prices much closer to our estimates of fair value. In the June NZIQ we saw the NZ dollar as being materially over-valued, we now assess it to be around fair-value. We also assessed equities to be moderately expensive in most markets. We now assess global equities to be slightly cheap, with Europe and Emerging Markets offering better value than the US, UK and New Zealand markets.

    Read the full media release here.

    The New Zealand Investment Quarterly (IQ) provides wholesale investors and investment fiduciaries an independent assessment of the broad investment opportunity set in New Zealand. The assessment can be regarded as truly independent because the NZIER does not earn income from the management of assets or investment transactional services.

    Read about NZIQ subscription options here.

  • Increased uncertainty over growth outlook, Consensus Forecasts, September 2015

    14 September 2015

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows a further downward revision in growth expectations amongst forecasters since the June survey. What stands out this round is the wider range of forecasts for growth, inflation and financial market measures, indicating a greater degree of uncertainty over the New Zealand economic outlook.

    The full release can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board calls for the OCR to be cut to 2.75%

    09 September 2015

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank cuts the interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent this Thursday.

    Read the full release here.

  • NZIER Economics Award for 2015 given to Dr Alan Bollard

    03 September 2015

    The NZIER Economics Award for 2015 was presented to Dr Alan Bollard at NZIER’s AGM & dinner yesterday evening.

    Accepting the award last night from Cebu in the Philippines where he is attending a meeting in his capacity as Executive Director of APEC, Dr Bollard said “It has been my good fortune to have been able to work in a range of economic policy areas over the past couple of decades, and to be working in a country, in institutions and with people who have wanted to ensure that they get the very best from economics and from economic theory to help New Zealand prosper and grow”.

    The citation for Dr Bollard can be read here.

    Further information on the NZIER Economics Award and past recipients can be found here.

  • Speed dating central bank style - NZIER Insight 52

    01 September 2015

    From next year, the Reserve Bank will let go one chance each year to meet and set interest rates. That means the Reserve Bank could easily fall behind the run rate on the interest rate settings required to manage the economy.There are ways to improve how interest rates are set. Meeting less often is not one of them.

    You can read the full Insight here.

  • Dairy drives softer growth outlook, says NZIER - Quarterly Predictions, September 2015

    26 August 2015

    The downturn in the dairy sector has been the key influence in the softening pace of the New Zealand economy. Business and consumer confidence has deteriorated, with the effects most apparent in dairy-intensive regions.  

    The effects of reduced farm income will reverberate through the economy as farmers rein in spending to ride out the poor seasons. We expect annual average GDP growth to dip to close to 2% by the end of this year, before rebounding over 2016 as the boost from the lower New Zealand dollar filters through to a broad range of exporting sectors.

    Quarterly Predictions an independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook, is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.

    The full media release can be read here.

  • NZIER's Shadow Board calls for the OCR to be cut to 3%

    22 July 2015

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank cuts the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3 percent this Thursday.

    You can read the full release here.

  • Businesses adjust expectations as demand softens - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, July 2015

    07 July 2015

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the New Zealand economy losing momentum. The drop in activity indicators in the June 2015 quarter points to annual growth remaining below 3% over the coming year – a marked drop from the 3.5% annual growth we saw at the end of last year.

    Full details are only available to NZIER members.

    The media release can be read here.

  • Growth expectations softening - Consensus Forecasts, June 2015

    15 June 2015

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have pared back growth expectations slightly since the March quarter survey. Activity indicators over the past quarter have been mixed, with global dairy prices continuing to fall but household spending remaining strong.

    You can read the full release here.