News

  • Do you think you’re better off alone? Impacts of Brexit on New Zealand - NZIER Insight 60

    14 June 2016

    In nine days, the United Kingdom (UK) goes to the polls to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union (EU). With the polling trends moving towards a ‘Leave’ vote in recent days, a new NZIER report “Do you think you’re better off alone?” explores what Brexit might mean for New Zealand.

    Read the full report here.

  • Growth outlook revised up on robust household spending - Consensus Forecasts, June 2016

    13 June 2016

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have revised up expectations of growth on the back of a stronger outlook for household spending. However, expectations of inflation and wage growth remain modest despite expectations of stronger activity.

    The full release can be read here.

  • Momentum in New Zealand economy to continue - Quarterly Predictions, June 2016

    01 June 2016

    The New Zealand economy is showing reasonable momentum, with households and businesses resilient in the face of offshore volatility earlier this year. We continue to expect strong population growth for the foreseeable future. Construction and tourism will remain the key drivers of solid growth for the next few years, with annual GDP growth forecast to average around 2.8% beyond 2016.

    Quarterly Predictions is an independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook available exclusively to NZIER’s members.

    The full media release can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board recommends the RBNZ holds this Thursday

    20 April 2016

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.25 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

    Read the full release here.

  • Businesses start 2016 in a more downbeat mood - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, April 2016

    05 April 2016

    The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows business confidence dropped in the first quarter of 2016, with a net 1% of businesses expecting a deterioration in the economy in the next six months.

    A key driver of this gloominess is that firms have consistently had their expectations of a pick-up in sales dashed in reality. Their optimism is starting to wane – firms now see weak demand ahead. Only a net 6% of businesses expect an improvement in demand – the lowest level since early 2011. Even the retail and services sectors, which has seen solid demand over 2015, are bracing for some softening in sales.

    The full media release can be read here.

  • Stronger growth but weaker inflation outlook - Consensus Forecasts, March 2016

    14 March 2016

    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have revised up expectations of growth and employment through to 2019. Despite the more favourable growth outlook, expectations for inflation and wage growth have been lowered.

    Read the full release here.

  • NZIER reacts to RBNZ March Monetary Policy Statement, media release - March 2016

    10 March 2016

    Reserve Bank surprises us with a 25bp cut to OCR

    We expected the OCR to remain on hold across 2016. Today the Reserve Bank proved us wrong – it cut the OCR by 25 basis points.
    The Reserve Bank’s cut to 2.25% was based on a deteriorating global outlook, a higher than expected Kiwi dollar and lower inflation expectations.  

    Our own view was centred on two key factors: our forecasts of continued momentum in the New Zealand economy pointing to economic growth of 2.5 to 3.0% for the next few years; and the weight we attached to the Reserve Bank’s view on financial stability risks from asset prices and the Auckland housing market in particular.
    In hindsight we took too much from Governor Wheeler’s speech in February that highlighted the many factors besides consumer price inflation, including asset prices, the Reserve Bank is required to take into account under its Policy Targets Agreement.

    The full media release can be read here.

  • NZIER’s Shadow Board sees no OCR change as appropriate but highlights downside risks

    08 March 2016

    NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank holds the interest rate at 2.50 percent in its Official Cash Rate announcement this Thursday.

    “The Reserve Bank is having to balance increased uncertainty over the global outlook and a weak inflation environment against solid momentum in the New Zealand economy and continued strength in asset prices. The recent lift in the NZD has effectively tightened monetary policy settings and will pose challenges for exporters.” said Christina Leung, Senior Economist at NZIER.

    The full release can be read here.

  • New Zealand economy picking up despite offshore volatility - Quarterly Predictions, March 2016

    02 March 2016

    Economic activity picked up over the second half of 2015, reflecting growth in the non-dairy sectors. Strong population growth, construction and tourism will be the key driving forces behind solid growth for the next few years. We expect annual GDP growth to recover to around 3% over 2016, and average 2.5% for the following years.

    An independent take on the New Zealand economic outlook is available exclusively to NZIER’s members in the latest Quarterly Predictions.

    The media release can be read here.

  • How would you spend a half-billion dollars on arts, culture and heritage? - NZIER Insight 58

    02 February 2016

    The government spends a half billion dollars on arts, culture and heritage each year but has little indication of what the public actually wants from public expenditure. At present mainly ‘experts’ decide what cultural goods and services should be supplied from the public purse.

    With New Zealand’s rapidly changing demography, low barriers to finance, production and distribution of cultural goods and services, and new technology to assist funding decisions, there is an opportunity to improve the match between public spending and public preferences.

    Simple tools are becoming available to ensure that public preferences are taken into account and that demand-side policies redress a supply side imbalance.

    The Insight can be read here.