News

  • Stronger growth likely - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, January 2014

    14 January 2014

    Economic activity accelerated in the second half of 2013, according to the NZIER’s December 2013 quarter Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO).

    “Businesses are the most optimistic they’ve been for 20 years and economic activity is strong. Optimism and activity are being realised into better profits, higher investment and more jobs,” said Shamubeel Eaqub, Principal Economist at NZIER.

    In December 2013, businesses were the most optimistic since June 1994 (52% from 33% in September). Domestic trading activity strengthened to the highest level since March 2005 (net 15% of firms reported increasing activity, up from 12% in September). Reported hiring rose to the highest level since December 2006, and firms expect to hire more staff at the start of 2014. This suggests an improved outlook for jobs and wages.

    You can read the full media release here.

    Full results and insights are available to NZIER members only.

     

     

     

     

  • Broad-based, stronger growth ahead - Consensus Forecasts, December 2013

    16 December 2013

    The New Zealand economy will grow strongly over the next couple of years, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Economic growth will pick up from 2.8% in the March 2014 year to 3.1% the following year. Economic growth will be broad-based across household spending, investment and exports.

    You can read the full release here.

  • Shadow Board’s appetite for higher interest rates increasing

    10 December 2013

    NZIER’s Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank leaves the interest rate at 2.50 percent but support for higher interest rates is growing. You can read the full release here.

  • Brighter 2014; some lingering risks - Quarterly Predictions, December 2013

    27 November 2013

    The New Zealand economy will grow strongly in 2014. It will be the best performance since 2007, before the recession. It has taken seven years to recover from one of the deepest and longest recessions on record. Household spending is leading the charge, boosted by the Canterbury recovery and a rebound from last summer’s drought. There are some risks: the global economy is still fragile and a soaring Auckland housing market could derail economic and financial stability.

    Detailed commentary and forecasts for the next five years are available exclusively to NZIER members.

    The full media release can be read here.

  • NZIER co-hosting miscrosimulation workshop

    05 November 2013

    Microsimulation in New Zealand: What can we learn from the Canadian experience?

    NZIER, The Treasury and COMPASS invite all those with an interest in microsimulation and its application to policy in
    New Zealand to a one-day workshop.
     
    We are pleased to welcome some of the world's foremost experts in the field of microsimulation to New Zealand.
    Speakers include: Michael Wolfson, Steve Gribble, Martin Spielauer and John Creedy
     
     
    Date: Monday 6 December, 2013
    Time 9am to 4pm (lunch will be provided)
    Location NZIER, Level 13 Grant Thornton House, 215 Lambton Quay, Wellington
    Register online, by Monday 25 November (link to online registration)

    Link to workshop website.

  • NZIER Shadow Board favours leaving interest rates on hold

    30 October 2013

    Most Shadow Board participants favour leaving interest rates at 2.50 percent. You can read the full release here.

  • Fighting fit? Assessing New Zealand’s fiscal sustainability, NZIER Public Discussion Paper 2013/5

    24 October 2013

    A new report from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) highlights the unprecedented fiscal challenges that New Zealand politicians will face in coming decades. NZIER recommends that tough decisions around taxes and government spending need to be taken now, and stuck to, in order to avoid a US-like situation in the future when the economic and political costs of correcting debt levels become dangerously high. A bipartisan agreement on funding superannuation costs would be a good starting point.

    You can read the full report here.

  • Positive outlook - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, October 2013

    08 October 2013

    The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows the economy has rebounded in the September 2013 quarter, following a pause in mid-2013.

    “Businesses are optimistic, activity is rebounding and this is being gradually realised into more jobs and profits.” said Shamubeel Eaqub, Principal Economist at NZIER.

    Businesses are optimistic (32% from 30%). Domestic trading activity, a very good indicator of GDP growth, rebounded to 11% from 5%, reversing a small drop in June. This is consistent with around 3% annual GDP growth.

    You can read the full media release here.

    Full results and insights are available to NZIER members only.

  • Sustained but gradual recovery - Consensus Forecasts, September 2013

    16 September 2013

    The New Zealand economy is recovering from the recession. The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts predict further gradual economic growth.

    Economic growth will pick up over the next two years, boosted by the Canterbury rebuild and a gradual underlying recovery. Economic growth will average 2.6% over the next three years, better than the past three years (at 1.0% per year), but slower than the 2001-2008 period (3.0% per year).

    You can read the full release here.

  • Domestic and international risks keep monetary policy on hold - NZIER Shadow Board

    11 September 2013

    “The NZIER Shadow Board recommends keeping the official cash rate at 2.5 percent,” said Jean-Pierre de Raad, Chief Executive at NZIER.

    “Inflation is low. Auckland’s housing market is still at elevated levels, which presents risks. Views are mixed on the likely effectiveness of the Reserve Bank’s restrictions on loan-to-value ratios.”

    “Internationally some emerging markets are becoming stressed as money returns to the US where yields are rising.”

    “With inflation low, and taking account of the risks, NZIER’s Shadow Board believes the appropriate monetary policy strategy is to leave the official cash rate where it is.

    You can read the full release here.