New Zealand struggles to grow its economy partially due to its small size and remote location. There is little that can be done to change location, but the size can be increased over time. It is feasible to adopt a population policy with the aim of the population reaching 15 million in the next 50 years – an annual growth rate of 2.5% per annum. This would bring the size and density of the population to levels closer to more prosperous European countries. Fifteen million – two and a half times current projections – is a good target, too, as it allows for several large cities, fostering competition within New Zealand. The full working paper can be read here.
Latest News
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Grow for it - How population policies can can promote economic growth, NZIER working paper 2012/127 January 2012
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Activity is softening - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, January 201217 January 2012
NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows a moderation in economic activity in the December 2011 quarter. Firms’ experienced trading activity eased (-4% from +1%) on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is consistent with annual economic growth of around 1.6%.
Survey results and insights are available exclusively to NZIER members.
You can read the full media release here.
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Māori export competitiveness16 December 2011
A report to Te Puni Kōkiri.
Increasing exports as a share of GDP is a key government priority. Te Puni Kōkiri commissioned this short report to provide an overview of why exporting is important for Māori businesses, which sectors of the Māori economy might be well suited for export growth, and what Māori firms need to think about as they prepare to enter overseas markets. Link to report. (Link is to Te Puni Kōkiri's website) -
Lower growth for longer - Consensus Forecasts, December 201112 December 2011
The recovery will slower than previously thought, according to the December 2011 NZIER Consensus Forecasts. But the economy will still grow: 2.2% in the year ending March 2012 and then accelerate to 3.0% in 2013 and 2014. The Canterbury reconstruction will be a key driver, with the rest of the economy growing more modestly, averaging 2.2% over the next three years. You can read the full release here.
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Economics like there’s no tomorrow - NZIER Insight 3202 December 2011
Do you get the sense that New Zealand doesn’t invest in the major public infrastructure facilities like we used to? Previous generations built entire networks for rail, road, water and energy. Only Muldoon’s Think Big projects and the current ‘Roads of National Significance’ might compare. Major infrastructure investment decisions come down to how much we care about our future, and the future of our children and grandchildren.
The government’s social discount rate policy captures in a single number how much decision makers care about the future relative to today. The default public sector stance is to use an 8% real (i.e. net of inflation) discount rate. This amounts to not worrying too much about the costs or benefits of a project after ten to 15 years. But is 8% right? You can read the full Insight here.
Each year NZIER devotes some of its resources to undertake and make freely available economic research and thinking aimed at promoting a better understanding of New Zealand’s important economic challenges. The preparation of this paper was funded from those resources.
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Bracing for another storm - Quarterly Predictions, December 201101 December 2011
Rapid global downturn threatens economic recovery
“New Zealand’s fledgling recovery will be severely hampered by the rapidly worsening global economy”, NZIER’s Principal Economist Shamubeel Eaqub said today.
Slow global growth to impact on export sector
The fall-out from the European sovereign debt mess will depress export growth. It will weigh on exports and tourism, which had been a buffer. Investment will remain depressed because banks will find it harder to raise capital overseas. The uncertainty around the global outlook is also weighing heavy on business and consumer confidence and thus spending.
The details are in NZIER’s latest Quarterly Predictions – a comprehensive and independent commentary on the New Zealand economy and forecasts covering the next five years. Details and insights are available exclusively to NZIER members.
You can read the full media release here.
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Be a whizz at writing a RIS - NZIER Insight 3118 November 2011
This Insight discusses the common pitfalls with undertaking policy development and ultimately writing a snappy, easy to follow RIS. Link to Insight 31.
Each year NZIER devotes some of its resources to undertake and make freely available economic research and thinking aimed at promoting a better understanding of New Zealand’s important economic challenges. The preparation of this paper was funded from those resources.
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The economics of climate change - why is it so difficult and controversial?16 November 2011
NZIER, Motu and The Treasury invite you to attend a public lecture by Dr Martin L. Weitzman in Wellington or Auckland.
The economics of climate change - why is it so difficult and controversial?
Economic analysis of what to do about climate change has sometimes been described as an economist’s nightmare. In this lecture, Dr Weitzman tries to explain why this particular application of cost-benefit analysis is more difficult than other, more ordinary, applications - and what it might mean.The audience should come away with an appreciation for why the economics of climate change is so controversial and why economics is unlikely to come up with crisp sharp answers about what exactly to do about it.Martin Weitzman is a Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He is among the most influential economists in the world according to IDEAS/RePEc. His current research is focused on environmental economics, specifically climate change and the economics of catastrophes.Wellington: Tuesday 6 December, 1.30pm-3.30pmIntercontinental Hotel, cnr Grey & Featherston StAuckland: Friday 16 December, 1.30pm-3.30pmAuckland City Library, Waitemata Room, Level 3Register: Registrations closes 28 November. We invite you to register now to secure your place. Spaces are limited.
To attend one of the lectures you must register here. You will receive an email notification when your registration has been confirmed.
